As the dust settles following the conclusion of Europe’s major domestic leagues, attention now turns to the international soccer scene. The 2024 European Championships are almost upon us, with just over two weeks until the tournament gets underway.
From June 14th, for the best part of a month, Germany will host thousands of soccer fans from all over the continent, as they visit various German cities to see their nation compete for a prize second only to the FIFA World Cup in terms of prestige.
Who will win Euro 2024?
The burning question is: who will win the Euros? If I had to choose, the most likely winner in my eyes is Germany, which goes against early market expectations.
A team may be the favorite in the outright betting, but that absolutely does not mean they’ll go on to get the job done. The best bet, at least in my eyes, is the one that represents the most value.
The bet that appears to carry a greater winning chance than the odds suggest, and as far as I’m concerned, ahead of Euro 2024, the Germans are that bet.
The likely contenders
There are always the big teams, the likely contenders if you will. The nations most likely to do well simply because they’ve always been favored based on historic soccer pedigree.
As is always the case ahead of the European Championships, you don’t have to try too hard to make a relatively compelling case for any of the big dogs, by which I mean the likes of France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and of course, England.
The question is, are there any from that bunch that look a cut above? Do any of those teams appeal considerably more than the others? Boring as it may be, I’d say no, not really.
Let’s look at each of the likely contenders in a bit more detail, starting with tournament hosts Germany:
Germany
The Germans are always feared, that’s for sure, and with this tournament on German soil, everyone should be wary of Die Mannschaft.
Germany has won the European Championships three times, twice as West Germany and once as a reunified Germany, most recently in 1996.
They’ve since won the World Cup (2010), and after some disappointing tournaments in the last decade or so, we shouldn’t be surprised if they bounce back here.
After all, they have the luxury of playing on home soil, while their blend of exciting young talent and experienced campaigners may be just right.
Odds on Germany to win Euro 2024: +550 (bet365, Betfred, BetMGM)
France
Winners of four major tournaments since 1984, the French, affectionately known as Les Bleus by their faithful followers, are often expected to do well at big tournaments, usually for the simple reason that they have a squad filled with top players.
That’s no different this time around, and with forwards such as Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann to call on, this is a team that can hurt anyone. Expect them to be there or thereabouts.
Odds on France to win Euro 2024: +400 (bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway)
Spain
Dominant at the end of the 2000s and the start of the 2010s, the Spanish, who won Euro 2008, the World Cup in 2010, and Euro 2012, have gone off the boil in the last decade or so, reaching none of the last four tournament finals, reaching only one semi-final during that time.
Their squad no longer has the look of old, but there are some exciting young players that will feature for La Roja in Germany this summer, so they may just be capable of improving on recent tournament results.
Odds on Spain to win Euro 2024: +900 (BetVictor, Betway)
Portugal
Winners of EURO 2016 in France, where they beat the tournament hosts in the final, the Portuguese are once again relatively well-fancied in the betting.
They haven’t quite made the same impact since that triumphant night in Paris, but they do have a squad filled with players plying their trade at big clubs in Europe’s top domestic leagues, so dismissing them entirely isn’t easy to do.
Odds on Portugal to win Euro 2024: +800 (bet365, William Hill, BetMGM, Betway)
England
Last but not least, certainly not according to the UK betting market, is England. The Three Lions went oh so close back at EURO 2020, which was played in 2021 due to COVID-19.
They made it all the way to the final, for the first time ever, scored an early goal to take the lead, yet still came up short, eventually losing to the Italians via a penalty shootout at Wembley.
With that effort still fresh in the memory, and with many of European club soccer’s best players in their ranks, such as Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, and Harry Kane, there’s plenty of optimism surrounding Gareth Southgate’s men.
Will 2024 be the year that the trophy drought ends? The betting certainly suggests it could be.
Odds on England to win Euro 2024: +300 (bet365, PaddyPower, William Hill, BetMGM)
Check out our Euro 2024 betting odds guide for a full analysis of each team's odds.
Can an outsider spring a surprise?
Surprises happen all the time in soccer. Week in, week out, in domestic leagues throughout Europe, teams win against the odds.
Even at big international tournaments, there are always a couple of shocks, results that largely leave the bookies smiling, as well as the odd shrewd punter brave enough to go against the grain.
However, when it comes to winning big international tournaments, real surprises have been in scarce supply over the years.
In 1992, Denmark sprang a surprise by winning Euro 1992, while Portugal winning Euro 2016, despite not a huge shock, was a minor surprise, especially as the French were so strongly favored on home turf.
The Greeks exceeded all expectations back at Euro 2004 by beating tournament hosts Portugal in the final, landing their first major prize and causing a massive upset in the betting, though that level of surprise hasn’t occurred since and likely won’t for many years to come.
The first seven in the betting ahead of Euro 2024 are what you’d call big soccer nations, all of whom have either won this tournament or the World Cup at least once in the past, and if the winner doesn’t come from those seven, it will definitely be a major upset, not to mention a gigantic surprise.
Recap - who will win Euro 2024?
Although England is predicted to win the Euro 2024 as +300 outright favorites, we think Germany will win the Euro 2024.
Granted, they’re not a big price, so I’m certainly not suggesting something special or unique here, but if we’re guided by the early outright betting, the Germans are not considered the most likely winners, yet I think they should be.
As hosts, for my money, they should start this tournament as market leaders. Home advantage cannot be overlooked.
Four of the last six tournament hosts have reached the final, while as mentioned above, the Germans have an eye-catching blend of high-performing youthful exuberance.
I’m thinking Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz - and big-name players who’ve been there and done it, such as Toni Kroos, Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rudiger, Ilkay Gundogan, and Thomas Muller.
For me, that’s not a setup to overlook. Combine this with that all-important home advantage and odds of +550 just look a little generous.
