The eagerly anticipated European Championships, Euro 2024, is fast approaching, now just two weeks away from the start of the biggest soccer event of the year.
Not only is this the biggest soccer tournament of the year, but it’s also one of the biggest betting events. So, let’s delve into the historical betting data and see how pre-tournament favorites usually fare at the Euros.
How do favorites usually perform?
Without looking back, one might assume that the team favored in the pre-tournament betting usually wins the European Championships. But is that really the case?
The last Euros, held in 2021 due to the COVID pandemic delay, saw Italy triumph over England in the final via a penalty shootout, a moment English fans remember all too well.
Were Italy the pre-tournament favorites? No, they were not. They were actually sixth favorites at the start of the competition. England entered the tournament as joint favorites along with France and came close, reaching the final.
Do underdogs ever thrive?
Can an underdog win Euro 2024? Well, nothing is impossible. We only need to look back to 2004 when Greece won the tournament despite being priced at +15000 in the betting odds.
However, how often do underdogs thrive? It’s all relative. If a significant underdog makes it to the knockout stages, possibly even the quarterfinals or semifinals, that can be seen as thriving.
For instance, when Wales reached the semifinals in 2016, they thrived, and since they entered the tournament at +2500, they certainly outperformed their odds by making it to the last four.
Here are some recent examples of underdogs performing well at the European Championships:
In addition to Wales outperforming their pre-tournament odds in 2016, a few other underdogs have impressed in recent decades. Denmark reached the semifinals as +2500 underdogs in 2021, while Turkey and Russia both made it to the semifinals in 2008 despite being long shots at +3300.
While big underdogs winning the tournament is rare, it’s not unusual for an underdog to go deep into the competition.
Results of the last five Euro favorites
Below you’ll see the last five pre-tournament favorites, their odds, and where they finished.
From the table, we see that the pre-tournament favorite typically performs well. Only one of the last five favorites has won the title, with Spain confirming their favoritism in 2012, but three of the last five favorites reached the final. This means that each of the last four favorites has either reached the final or won the competition.
Bookmakers usually set the odds for a reason. Teams are typically favorites because they are expected to perform well, and bookmakers don’t usually offer generous odds on teams likely to succeed.
Outright odds of previous euro winners
We’ve seen that favorites typically do well at the European Championships, even if they don’t always win. Now, let’s look at the outright odds of the last five winners of this prestigious tournament.
While the pre-tournament favorite has consistently performed well, only one favorite has won in recent years. Two of the last five winners were among the top two favorites, and in only one of the last five tournaments has a major underdog won. The 2016 winners, Portugal, were +1600, making them minor underdogs but still sixth in the betting market, which doesn’t categorize them as a complete long shot.
Is it worth betting on the favorite?
It’s fair to conclude that pre-tournament favorites usually perform well at the European Championships. Only one of the last four favorites has won the competition, but the favorite has reached the final in each of the last four tournaments. So, don’t be too quick to discount the Euro 2024 market leader, even if it is England!
