It might be the weekend, but as far as I’m concerned, with less than a week until the European Championships begins, we’re officially into tournament week.
There are six days until the summer spectacular kicks off in Germany, which means there’s still time to explore a few different betting angles.
Following yesterday’s articles on player/young player of the tournament bets, we’re switching back to team-betting markets.
It’s now time to dive into a couple of highest scoring team bets, which are always good fun.
Euro 2024 highest scoring team prediction & picks
We’ve looked at top-scorer bets, which are always popular ahead of big competitions like the Euros or the World Cup, but top-scoring team bets can also add to the excitement.
If you like what a particular nation offers offensively, then why not bet on them to finish the tournament as the highest scoring team?
Pre-tournament, everyone has their own ideas on which teams can go far, but as mentioned in various articles over the last week or so, I like both Portugal and the Netherlands to have promising runs at this tournament. If that’s the case, I really don’t think either will be far from being the top-scoring nation.
We’ll look at both bets in more detail below, but let’s first take a look at the betting, before going over previous top-scoring teams at the European Championships.
Highest scoring team betting odds
As the current betting shows, there’s not a single red-hot favorite for the highest scoring team market, with several of the big boys trading close together in the market.
I know the Three Lions, with the likes of Foden, Bellingham, and Kane in their ranks, are strongly fancied to do well at this tournament, but how they’re +333 in this market, I really don’t know.
For my money, such odds are too short, especially after they huffed and puffed, yet did anything but blow Iceland’s house down in that last pre-tournament friendly.
And yes, I know, it was “just a friendly,” but in their final warm-up game before a major tournament, such an effort just wasn’t good enough, nor will it have filled many with confidence that Southgate’s men can outscore all other nations in Germany.
Previous highest scoring teams at the Euros
Let’s take a look at which teams scored the most goals at each European Championships since Euro 2000.
The table below shows previous Euro top-scoring teams, the number of goals they scored, plus where they finished in the tournament.
As the table above shows, and as you can probably guess, teams that go deep into the tournament score the most goals.
At three of the last four tournaments, the winner has either scored the most or joint most goals, while the top-scoring or joint top-scoring team has reached the final at each of the last four European Championships.
Since 2000, only England (back in 2004) managed to top score/joint top score without reaching the semi-finals. A very Three Lions stat if you ask me.
Certainly not short of attacking quality
At the end of the day, to score lots of goals in a tournament, you need some proper finishers, but proper finishers need plenty of chances, and for my money, while there may well be better teams in terms of getting results, few teams offer more in terms of chance-creation than Portugal and the Netherlands.
What’s more, in recent times, especially during qualifying and the Nations League, both Portugal and the Netherlands have favored an attack-minded approach, which has seen both score plenty of goals, even if they’ve both struggled to keep teams out as a result of a more cavalier style.
I did mention in my group winner article that the Portuguese were one of the better favorites to take on in that sense, and I stand by that, largely because they have a history of qualifying without winning the group, while I think they have a back-line that can be got at.
However, make no mistake about it, if it all clicks, they’ve got a fantastic attack, one that can score lots of goals and one that could quite easily outscore anybody on route to going deep into the tournament.
Of course, they have the all-time leading international scorer in Cristiano Ronaldo, and even at 39, he may be used more sporadically than we’re used to seeing at big tournaments, he still offers serious firepower.
In addition, the Portuguese have the pace, power, and directness of Rafael Leao, plus the guile of Diogo Jota, who is not a forward to underestimate having scored nine goals in his last 20 international appearances. In the last year, among forwards in Europe’s top leagues, Jota is in the top 1% for non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, averaging a hefty 0.85.
What’s more, in Bruno Fernandes, they have a player who, in my eyes, is one of the most dangerous and creative on show in Germany this summer, and I say that earnestly as a non-Manchester United fan.
The Portuguese have scored two or more goals in all but one of their last eight fixtures, while we saw them score no shortage of goals on the big stage at the World Cup in late 2020, notching a total of 12 before being eliminated in the quarter-finals.
Such a total would’ve been enough to finish as at least joint-top scorers in three of the six Euro renewals since 2000, so at +700, they’ll do for me.
Moving on to the Netherlands, and I really do think +1600 is a bit of a joke price here. I’m not saying they should be favorites, but you could shave a chunk off those odds and I’d probably still be interested.
Adopting a cautious, more defensive approach is not really the Dutch way, while with their current crop of explosive full-backs and tricky midfielders, I can see them creating lots of chances in Germany, so don’t be surprised if they score lots of goals, even if they do fall short of silverware in typical style.
The men in Orange scored ten goals in five games at the World Cup in 2022 and I think they’ve gotten better since then, with exciting young talents like Xavi Simons and Jeremie Frimpong coming through.
Frimpong recently played a key role as an attacking full-back for a double-winning Leverkusen side, scoring nine goals, assisting seven, standing in the top 1% among full-backs in Europe’s top five leagues for both non-penalty goals and total shots per 90 minutes, not to mention the top 7% for shot-creating actions.
Meanwhile, Xavi Simons ranked in the top 6% of attacking midfielders/wingers for shot-creating actions, registering nine goals and 11 assists in the Bundesliga for RB Leipzig.
Throw in Teun Koopmeiners and Cody Gakpo, who last season for Atalanta and Liverpool, registered a combined total of 44 goals and assists in all competitions, and the Dutch certainly don’t seem short of firepower.
Recap - Highest scoring team prediction & picks
To confirm, the following two highest scoring team bets are recommended ahead of Euro 2024:
Portugal Highest Scoring Team @ +700 with Bet365
Netherlands Highest Scoring Team @ +1600 with Bet365
