Today is Monday, June 10th, which means the wait for Euro 2024 is nearly over, but there’s still time to explore a few different betting angles.
Major tournaments are great for player and team bets, such as wagering on the top scorer or the competition winner. But what about more general tournament bets?
One such bet involves betting on the total number of goals scored throughout the tournament. This market is relatively niche and not something every bookmaker offers, but it’s a fun market to explore nonetheless.
How many goals will be scored?
Asking how many goals will be scored at a major tournament might seem like an impossible question. Let's be honest, nobody knows, but as with all gambling, it's less about predicting and more about finding a decent price—odds that may be a bit generous.
There are several ways to determine whether odds are potentially generous, and it’s certainly not an exact science. At least, there's no one definitive way.
For me, with a bet like this, it's just about forming an opinion of how many goals are likely to be scored based on various factors and then seeing whether or not the available odds reflect a similar likelihood.
As far as I’m concerned, there’s enough evidence to suggest that Euro 2024 could be quite high-scoring.
However, what does high-scoring mean? It’s all relative, right? Compared to Euro 2016, I think this could be a high-scoring tournament, but compared to Euro 2020, maybe not.
You’ll see what I mean by this when we look at the last two European Championships from a total goals perspective below.
From a betting angle here, I’m quite taken by ‘Under 130 Goals’ at +200 with bet365, which means that the tournament will need to contain no more than 129 goals in total for a win to be sealed.
How many goals have been scored at previous Euros?
To get an idea of what number we're aiming at here, it’s a good idea to look at how many goals have been scored at previous European Championships.
Of course, many previous totals may seem relatively low compared to the last two iterations of this famous competition, but that's because from 2016, the number of teams increased from 16 to 24, meaning more games, which naturally results in more goals.
Therefore, for comparison purposes, we should mainly be looking at the last two Euros, which are shown below in the table, containing the overall number of goals scored, as well as the number of goals scored per game (average), plus the total number of goals scored from (non-shootout) penalties.
As the table shows, there was a significant increase between the number of goals scored at Euro 2016 and Euro 2020, an increase of 34, which is an extra 0.66 goals per game.
This could just be pure variance. In other words, more goals were scored at Euro 2020 than Euro 2016 for no specific reason.
Alternatively, one possible reason could be that Euro 2020 was played in multiple countries, meaning that several teams played several games on home soil, which can aid goal scoring.
After all, look at any given domestic season in any country, and most teams tend to score more goals at home than away.
Don’t be surprised if fewer goals are scored this time
It would be easy to assume that the goals will fly all over the place after Euro 2020, but as mentioned above, a large part of why that tournament was much more high-scoring than the one before it—the first 24-team edition of the Euros—was likely because so many teams enjoyed a home advantage at times.
This time around, we've returned to the traditional single-host country approach, meaning that every team besides Germany is playing on foreign soil, which is key.
I think it would be slightly foolish to assume that things will be just as high-scoring as they were last time around. I, for one, think we’ll see a decrease in total goals here.
If I had to guess, which I know is risky, I’d say we can expect somewhere in between Euro 2016 and Euro 2020 in terms of total goal count.
After all, many of the teams set to participate in Euro 2024 qualified for the tournament based largely on their ability to keep things tight at the back. In qualifying, the likes of England, Ukraine, Turkey, Croatia, Albania, Czech Republic, Belgium, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Portugal, France, Netherlands, Spain, and Slovakia all conceded an average of 1.00 goal per game or less.
Nine of the 15 teams mentioned above conceded 0.75 goals per game or less. Naturally, the tournament itself is tougher, as every team will typically face a better quality of opponent, but such a stat is still worth considering.
It’s also important not to overlook the fact that many teams will adopt a cautious approach in Germany, especially early on.
Of course, some will be more cautious than others, but this is a knockout tournament, and even from the start in the groups, most will have their eyes on the big picture. Don’t be surprised if many early games are cagey and relatively low-scoring.
At the end of the day, most teams, especially the best ones, though undoubtedly keen to lay down a marker and get off to a good start, won’t want to peak too soon.
There’s no need for the top teams to go all out early on, as the games get more important as the tournament progresses. Keeping a little back is key, and we’ve seen plenty of successful teams do that in the past, so again, don’t be surprised if some don’t fully extend themselves early on.
Am I suggesting that everyone is going to be playing for 0-0’s? Absolutely not, and just like every tournament does, Euro 2024 will have its share of 2-1’s, 2-2’s, 3-2’s, and so on, but there will certainly be a lot of teams simply doing enough to get over the line early on, while many others will adopt a defend-first approach, so expect plenty of low-scoring games.
While I’ve said above that I think the tournament could be relatively high-scoring, I don’t think we’ll see the Euro 2020 total surpassed this time around.
My version of relatively high-scoring would be something like an average of 2.50 goals per game, which would result in a total of 127.5 goals.
Obviously, a total of 127.5 goals is not possible, so let’s call it 128. I’d take that all day long.
I could be miles off and we could see more goals than ever before scored in Germany, and if that’s the case, so be it. Live by the sword, die by the sword, right?
Ultimately, if like me, you’re of the opinion that something in between the previous two Euro totals is likely, then odds of +200 on ‘Under 130 Goals’ are definitely worth taking.
Recap - How Many Goals Will Be Scored at Euro 2024?
To confirm, as far as total tournament goals go, the recommended bet is as follows:
Under 130 Goals @ +200 with bet365.
