With less than two weeks until the eagerly anticipated European Championships, we're ramping up our pre-tournament content.
Having already highlighted two bets in the top scorer market and examined the importance of major tournament experience when assessing top scorer picks, it's time to explore a slightly more niche top scorer market.
In this article, we'll focus on the top Premier League goalscorer market, which, as the name suggests, involves betting on Premier League players who will be competing at Euro 2024.
Euro 2024 prediction: Top Premier League goalscorer
Like many, I enjoy diving into these niche markets during big tournaments. There's less competition compared to the general top scorer market, and I often find value here. Whether or not I actually find value is another matter, but I'm confident in my two picks this time around.
As the odds below indicate, Phil Foden, following his fantastic season in the Premier League, is the +350 favorite to be the top PL scorer at Euro 2024. However, I'm looking elsewhere. I have Foden at a much more enticing +2500 in the general top scorer market, but here, I prefer to look further afield.
At odds of +1000 and +1200 respectively, I like Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) and Bruno Fernandes (Portugal), and I'll explain why a bit later in the article.
Top Premier League Goalscorer odds
Here are the current odds for the "Top Premier League Scorer" betting market ahead of the upcoming European Championships:
There are several excellent Premier League marksmen competing at the European Championships this time around. In truth, any of the players listed above could easily clinch this title.
However, for me, the value lies with those towards the higher end of the odds spectrum.
Previous top Premier League scorers
Let’s also take a look at previous Premier League players who’ve outperformed their colleagues in terms of goals at the European Championships.
As we can see from the above table, it doesn’t always take an extraordinary goal-scoring performance to finish as the leading Premier League goalscorer. While Milan Baros netted an impressive five goals in Portugal back in 2004 and Harry Kane scored four at Euro 2020, two goals have been enough in the past, while three goals sealed the deal in both 2012 and 2016.
Going under the radar
For my money, both Cody Gakpo and Bruno Fernandes are flying under the radar in this market.
We'll start with Liverpool's Gakpo, who may not have taken the Premier League by storm last season, but in a team packed with offensive talent, he held his own and quietly delivered solid numbers, scoring eight times and averaging a very respectable 0.44 goals per 90 minutes.
It's worth noting that Gakpo is likely to be the preferred striker for the Netherlands, at least from the start, and his scoring record for his nation is impressive.
In five qualifying appearances, Gakpo scored three goals and now has eight goals in his last 17 competitive appearances for the Netherlands.
Additionally, the 25-year-old averaged 0.49 expected goals per game for Liverpool last season and 3.60 shots per 90 minutes. At +1000, he's a solid pick in this market.
Secondly, despite being a divisive character, Bruno Fernandes at +1200 is another strong choice. While much of the focus for Portugal will be on Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s important to remember that this is not the Ronaldo of old. At 39 years old, Ronaldo now plays at a lower standard, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he will be used more sparingly in Germany.
Fernandes, on the other hand, won't be used sparingly. Though not a striker, Fernandes is no stranger to scoring goals for both club and country. If Ronaldo doesn’t feature constantly, Fernandes is also the likely penalty taker, which is always a factor to consider with bets of this nature.
Having reached double figures for goals in three of the last four Premier League seasons and scoring twice for Portugal in a 4-2 win over Finland, Fernandes is eager for goals and ready to perform. Furthermore, he has a strong scoring record for Portugal in competitive matches, scoring six in 10 Euro qualifying games and averaging an impressive 0.64 goals per game.
He also performed well on the big international stage before, scoring two in four at the World Cup in Qatar in late 2022. With so many positive factors, Fernandes at +1200 offers considerable value.
Recap - Top Premier League goalscorer
To summarize, our top Premier League scorer picks for Euro 2024 are:
Cody Gakpo Top Premier League Scorer @ +1000 (bet now with Bet365)
Bruno Fernandes Top Premier League Scorer @ +1200 (bet now with Bet365)
