The first Friday of June has arrived, signaling that summer is just around the corner, as is Euro 2024.
It’s now exactly one week until the opening day of the European Championships, which will be held in Germany, and we’re back with more pre-tournament betting picks.
This time around, we’re focusing on player betting, specifically the ‘Player of the Tournament’ market.
Euro 2024 picks: Player of the tournament prediction & picks
This market differs from typical pre-tournament bets like the top scorer market, primarily because it’s not as straightforward.
If you bet on a player to be the top scorer, they either score the most goals or they don’t, with simple goal stats determining the outcome.
When it comes to the ‘Player of the Tournament’ market, we’re betting on the player to win an award decided by UEFA representatives.
Essentially, UEFA typically awards this accolade to a high-performing player from one of the two teams that reach the final, typically the winner, as we’ll see below.
There’s plenty of debate over whether or not UEFA correctly awards this trophy, but I’m going to get involved anyway.
This year, the betting looks competitive, and as far as I'm concerned, there isn’t a huge standout favorite, unlike Lionel Messi who was heavily favored (and delivered) at the last World Cup.
As the odds below indicate, there are plenty of familiar names at the top of the market, but with something like this, I generally like to look a little further afield. With so many quality players to choose from, that doesn’t necessarily mean siding with long shots.
In fact, both Florian Wirtz (Germany) and Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) have a realistic shot at taking the title of ‘Player of the Tournament.’
Read on for a full explanation of why I’m betting on these players in this market.
‘Player of the Tournament’ betting odds
Here is how the current betting market for the ‘Player of the Tournament’ award currently shapes up:
Previous winners
Before we get into the picks for Euro 2024, let’s look at the previous winners of this prestigious individual accolade (since 2000), shown in the table below, complete with country, their country’s finish at the Euros, and the club they played for at the time.
As the table above shows, those awarding the ‘Player of the Tournament’ title heavily favor players from teams that at least reach the final.
On one hand, this makes sense, but occasionally it’s probably not quite fair, as some players can have outstanding individual tournaments even if their nation falls at the semi-final hurdle, but that’s just the way it goes.
Too big to ignore
Of course, with so many top players on display, many of whom represent the big nations, each of whom could very easily win this tournament if everything goes right, there are several potential winners of this award.
However, if we’re looking at it from a value point of view and thinking who may just have a better chance than the odds suggest, I’m struggling to find two better options than Florian Wirtz and Bruno Fernandes.
We’ll start with the German, who enters this tournament off the back of a fantastic season domestically.
As Bayer Leverkusen made history in the Bundesliga, ending Bayern Munich’s reign, winning their first-ever title, and becoming the first unbeaten champion, Wirtz starred.
The youngster played a pivotal role in Xabi Alonso’s attack-minded Leverkusen side, scoring 11 goals and registering 11 assists in the league, adding a further 15 goals and assists in cup competitions.
This will be his first major tournament for Germany, but after being one of the most important players in a title-winning Bundesliga team, Wirtz looks set for a massive role in Julian Nagelsmann’s set-up.
At just 21, Wirtz is eligible for ‘Young Player of the Tournament,’ and he’s quite favored to scoop that award (+700), and I support him there too, but given his likely importance to this German team, I think he could easily take the big individual accolade if his team thrives.
Secondly, I think Bruno Fernandes is underrated here. Sure, if Portugal does well, UEFA will likely lean towards giving Cristiano Ronaldo the award, but I’m not too sure that the veteran forward, who is now 39, is going to play the leading role expected of him.
In contrast, Fernandes is at the top of his game, having finished the domestic season strong with a big performance in Manchester United’s FA Cup triumph over rivals Manchester City, and we know that he’s one of the big leaders in this Portuguese team.
As mentioned when recommending him in the top Premier League scorer article, Fernandes enjoyed a decent individual season, despite United’s struggles, scoring 15 goals and registering 13 assists in all competitions.
Moreover, he has an excellent record of leading by example for Portugal. Just the other night, he came off the bench in a friendly against Finland to take charge, scoring two well-taken goals, showing his ability to beat keepers from range.
If Ronaldo doesn’t play the role of old, then Fernandes can take his place, and even if the veteran striker gets plenty of game time, he may still struggle to outshine Fernandes, who looks set to play a huge role for a very strong Portugal side.
Recap - Player of the tournament prediction & picks
To confirm, we’re recommending the following bets ahead of the upcoming European Championships:
Florian Wirtz Player of the Tournament @ +2500 (bet now with bet365)
Bruno Fernandes Player of the Tournament @ +4000 (bet now with bet365)
