In just four days, major international soccer returns with the European Championships.
On Friday, June 14th, the soccer world will turn its gaze to Munich and the Allianz Arena, where Germany will face Scotland in the opening game of Euro 2024.
With a few days left before the action kicks off in Munich, we have time to explore various betting angles.
We’ve already delved into the top-scorer market in several articles, but there's still more to cover. Here, we’re going to examine whether domestic form is a significant predictor for the tournament's top scorer.
Is domestic form relevant at the Euros?
As I mentioned in my top scorer tips article, there are a couple of players I really like at the current odds, but I was curious to see if I could identify additional contenders. I wondered whether there’s a correlation between strong domestic form leading into the Euros and winning the Golden Boot.
I wanted to determine if players who top-score at the European Championships typically do so after performing well for their club teams in the season immediately preceding the tournament.
After some research, it’s fair to say that Euro top scorers generally come into the tournament following a strong domestic season. As shown below, very few Golden Boot winners in recent times have struggled to score goals at the club level in the season leading up to the tournament.
Previous top scorers at the Euros and their domestic form
Before we examine the candidates for the Euro 2024 top scorer, let’s look at some previous top scorers and their domestic form in the season leading up to their Golden Boot-winning performance.
As the table above shows, virtually all top scorers at the Euros since 1996 enjoyed productive league campaigns before representing their country. The only exception is Fernando Torres, who won the Golden Boot at Euro 2012 after a modest season with Chelsea, scoring just six league goals at an average of 0.28 goals per game, the lowest among the last seven Euro top scorers.
Three of the last seven Golden Boot winners entered the European Championships having scored more than 20 league goals in the season directly before, while five of the last seven had a scoring average of at least 0.65 goals per game.
Recent form of likely top scorers at Euro 2024
Knowing the typical league profile of a Euro top scorer, let’s look at some of the best performers ahead of Euro 2024. The table below shows the 12 most likely players according to the top scorer betting market, plus a few notable others currently priced greater than +3300. It includes the league they played in, the goals they scored, their goals per 90 minutes, and their expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes.
*No access to Saudi Pro League xG data.
As we can see from the table, many players head to Euro 2024 after fine domestic campaigns. Unsurprisingly, the top three in the betting performed exceptionally well last season in terms of goals scored.
Adding one to the mix
In my previous top scorer tips article, I highlighted both Phil Foden and Kai Havertz, the latter having since moved from +3300 to +2800 in the betting, and I remain confident with those picks.
Am I saying that Foden and Havertz are the two most likely top scorers at this tournament? Certainly not, but from a goal-scoring perspective, they offer more value than the odds suggest. In other words, the odds seem a bit generous.
Despite being satisfied with both Foden and Havertz, I’m going to add one more player to make my top scorer predictions three-pronged. That player is Lois Openda, currently available at +4000 with bet365.
Outside of Mbappe, Kane, and Ronaldo, Openda is the most eye-catching player in the table above and has a similar profile to previous top scorers in terms of his goal-scoring form last season.
In previous versions of the Belgian team, Romelu Lukaku has been heavily relied upon up front, but that may not be the case this time, given the threat Openda poses.
What’s more, even if Lukaku starts as the central striker, Openda is likely to feature somewhere in the forward setup, which for me is sufficient. If he gets enough game time, I believe he’ll cause problems for defenses and ultimately score goals. His pace and ability to get in behind also make him a fantastic option off the bench.
Most importantly, looking at the numbers above, +4000 seems a bit on the high side.
Sure, the Red Devils have plenty of offensive quality, and it’s possible that the RB Leipzig forward doesn’t play much, but at +4000, that’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Euro 2024 top scorer bets
To confirm, the following top scorer bet for Euro 2024 is being added to the two already provided:
Lois Openda @ +4000 with bet365
