The first three-game day at the 2024 European Championships wraps up with Italy facing off against Albania. In what appears to be a challenging opening game, can the Red & Blacks pull off an upset? Or will the Italians handle business smoothly? Read on for our Italy vs Albania predictions.
Italy vs Albania prediction
For the Italy vs Albania match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis. The Italians may be heavy favorites, but they haven’t been prolific scorers lately, while the Albanians have improved over the last year or so, becoming a tough team to beat and enjoying counter-attacks.
Here are our Italy vs Albania predictions, with reasoning provided later in the article:
Both Teams to Score @ +137 with bet365
Italy vs Albania betting odds
Italy vs Albania head-to-head statistics
These two nations have faced each other only four times, most recently in 2022, when Italy won 3-1 in Albania. Since their first meeting in 2014, the Italians have won each of the four matches against Albania, conceding just one goal in the process.
Italy vs Albania preview
This match will be played on June 15, 2024, at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund at 2:00 PM ET.
Following their success at Euro 2020, the Italians underperformed by failing to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar, but they’ve since bounced back and are ready for another shot at the European Championships, this time under new management.
Under Luciano Spalletti, Gli Azzurri have once again become a difficult team to beat, often grinding out wins in typical Italian fashion, as they’ve done in three of their last four matches.
However, they failed to top their qualifying group, losing both home and away to England, suggesting they might not have the quality needed to beat the best teams.
For Albania, qualifying for the European Championships was unexpected, yet they took full advantage of being in a weaker qualifying group, topping it impressively.
Since Brazilian manager Sylvinho took charge at the beginning of 2023, the Albanians have become much more resolute, losing only three games in 18 months.
On their way to this tournament, they showed quality in all areas, beating both the Czech Republic and Poland, so they’re no pushovers.
Unfortunately, Sylvinho’s team has found themselves in a tough group, but who knows, maybe they’ll surprise the big teams just as they did by entering Euro 2024 as group winners.
Italy vs Albania Betting picks
One bet stands out ahead of this Italy vs Albania game, so here it is:
Both teams to score
On paper, this Italy team looks underwhelming. I’m certainly not convinced by them and I’m willing to bet they won’t be retaining their title.
However, their two best players, in my opinion, are in the final third, so they should be capable of causing some damage here.
After all, they have found the back of the net in three of their last four games, and they scored in most of their qualifying matches, failing to score in only one out of ten games.
Most soccer fans know the threat that Federico Chiesa poses, while they have a very capable striker in Gianluca Scamacca, who recently scored 19 goals in all competitions for Atalanta.
Inter Milan duo Federico Dimarco and Davide Frattesi, who combined for 20 goals and assists in Serie A last season, add to the threat, although only one of them is likely to start, at least in the first game.
Since their last meeting in late 2022, it’s fair to say that Albania has improved, and after a year and a half under Sylvinho, they’re likely a tougher side to beat, so we shouldn’t assume this will be easy for the current champions.
What’s more, there’s a good chance that Albania will be dangerous on the counter. The Italians won’t be as expansive as some teams in this tournament, but they’ll have little choice but to attack since the Red & Blacks won’t take many risks.
During qualifying, Albania did most of their best work on the counter, scoring some good goals against the likes of Poland and the Czech Republic, so they could easily threaten here.
It’s also worth noting that Italy hasn’t kept many clean sheets over the last year or so, conceding in qualifying matches both home and away to England, against North Macedonia, and at home to Ukraine.
Overall, there’s enough evidence to make early odds of +137 with bet365 look slightly generous, and with little else standing out, that’s the best bet.
Recap - Italy vs Albania betting picks
To recap, the recommended bet for this fixture is:
Both Teams to Score @ +137 with bet365
