The only team to achieve maximum points during the group stage will be in action on Sunday as Spain faces the surprise package of the tournament, Georgia. The Georgians have been a refreshing inclusion in Germany, but is this the end of the road for them, or could their journey continue? Read on for our Spain vs. Georgia predictions.
Spain vs. Georgia prediction
For the Spain vs Georgia match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for Spain based on our analysis.
Spain has looked by far the most accomplished team in Germany, being the only team to progress with three wins. Georgia has shown fantastic spirit and passion, playing some good soccer, moving the ball well and with purpose. However, they’re likely to be overpowered here, as was the case when the two teams met twice in qualifying.
Our Spain vs. Georgia predictions for this knockout clash can be found below:
Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Assists @ +550 with bet365
Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Fouls @ +100 with bet365
Spain vs. Georgia betting odds
At the time of writing, the betting odds reflect a win probability of 83.3% for Spain, while Georgia has a win probability of 6.7%.
Using our own calculations, we’ve assigned a win probability of 81.8% for Spain and 8.3% for Georgia.
Spain vs. Georgia head-to-head statistics
This will be the eighth renewal of this fixture. The teams met twice during Euro 2024 qualifying, with Spain picking up 3-1 and 7-1 wins. Six of the previous seven games between the two teams have been won by Spain. Back in 2016, Georgia recorded their first and only victory against Spain.
Spain vs. Georgia preview
This match will take place on June 30, 2024, at RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne. Kickoff will be at 3:00 PM ET.
Many expected Spain to impress in Germany, and they have done exactly that, making it through to the knockouts as the only team to win three out of three games.
Spain has evolved, that’s for sure. Of course, La Roja still plays excellent possession soccer and is still capable of passing teams off the park, but they’re also direct and very quick to get the ball to their powerful runners.
Wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have been a nightmare to defend against, offering a combination of blistering pace, trickery, and end-product, and neither has been afraid to use these tools.
La Roja is the only team to have advanced to the knockouts without conceding a goal, which is an achievement directly related to their strategy of outplaying teams and starving their opponents of chances.
Georgia made it through in much less convincing style, but they have been entertaining. It’s fair to say that most neutrals have been captivated by a Georgian team that has done anything but make up the numbers in Germany.
In their first-ever tournament, the team managed by former French player Willy Sagnol has shown tremendous passion and resilience. They have not only done their nation proud by giving their all but have also played some promising soccer. They’ve dug deep and got men behind the ball when necessary but have also looked to get forward with purpose.
Their willingness to take advantage of the space left by opposing teams, moving the ball quickly and getting forward with haste, has perhaps been their best asset.
In Georges Mikautadze, currently the tournament's top scorer, they have a deadly forward. In Kvicha Kvaratskelia, they have a ball carrier who can cause any team problems, plus several other promising players. Even against a Spanish side that is very hard to face, there are reasons for the Georgians to be optimistic.
Spain vs. Georgia betting picks
Ahead of this intriguing clash, here are two recommended player betting angles:
Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Assists
By now, everyone knows just how exceptionally talented 16-year-old Lamine Yamal is. Many youngsters, most older than Yamal, get labeled as ‘wonderkids,’ but in this case, it’s fully warranted, and if anything, may not quite do the Barcelona boy justice.
Yamal has already made plenty of headway for Spain at this tournament, especially when dancing around the Italians, running top-level players ragged on match-day two.
Known for his goal-scoring, Yamal was just as dangerous from a playmaking perspective for Barca last season, registering as many assists as goals. He’s been looking to create for those around him in Germany too.
Yamal assisted against Croatia during the first round of group games. At the tournament, he’s averaging 3.68 passes into the penalty area/final-third passes/crosses into the penalty area per game.
Here are some other assist-related stats Yamal boasts in a Spain shirt:
Four assists in 10 appearances
Averaging 0.64 assists per 90 minutes
Averaging 0.47 expected assisted goals at Euro 2024
Considering all these factors, odds of +550 for him to provide an assist against Georgia look too good to pass up.
Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Fouls
Much like Yamal carries favorable odds to produce an assist in this game, fiery forward Alvaro Morata looks well-priced to commit at least one foul.
Morata’s main job is to score, which he has managed to do once so far in Germany, scoring against Croatia on match-day one.
However, Morata is no stranger to fouling his opponents. The Atletico Madrid man has already given away four fouls at Euro 2024, averaging 2.10 fouls per game.
If we consider that he averaged 1.55 fouls per game for Atletico in La Liga last season, then the early odds are in our favor here.
Recap - Spain vs. Georgia betting picks
To confirm, here are two recommended bets ahead of Spain vs. Georgia:
Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Assists @ +550 with bet365
Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Fouls @ +100 with bet365
