The sixth knockout game of Euro 2024 features Portugal and Slovenia battling it out in Frankfurt. Can the 2016 champions get back to winning ways after their loss to Georgia?
After progressing through the group stages, could Slovenia pull off a significant upset? Read on for our Portugal vs. Slovenia predictions.
Portugal vs. Slovenia prediction
For the Portugal vs Slovenia match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Portugal based on our analysis.
Sure, Portugal lost to Georgia last time out, but that result shouldn't be overemphasized. They had already secured their spot in the knockouts. While Slovenia has some capable attackers, they are unlikely to match Portugal's overall quality when it counts.
Here are our Portugal vs. Slovenia predictions, with analysis to follow:
Bernardo Silva Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +120 withbet365
Benjamin Sesko to Score @ +500 with bet365
Portugal vs. Slovenia betting odds
According to early betting odds, Portugal has a 69.2% chance of winning, while Slovenia has only an 11.1% chance.
Our calculations estimate a 71.4% win probability for Portugal and a 10.5% win probability for Slovenia.
Portugal vs. Slovenia head-to-head statistics
This will be just the second time these teams meet. Earlier this year, Slovenia surprised everyone with a 2-0 win in a friendly match.
Portugal vs. Slovenia preview
This match will be played on July 1, 2024, at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, with kick-off at 8:00 PM ET.
Portugal was one of three teams to secure their place in the knockouts after the first two games, both of which they won. They haven't shown their full potential yet but have displayed moments of brilliance.
Roberto Martinez’s team received a wake-up call in their final group game against Georgia. Even though that match didn't affect their qualification, they need to step up if they aim to reclaim the title they won in 2016.
For Slovenia, reaching the knockouts is somewhat surprising, though it has become easier to qualify than to be eliminated these days. They've shown determination in Germany, attacking effectively and conceding only two goals.
In their final group game, Slovenia managed a 0-0 draw against an underwhelming England team. This result isn't ideal preparation for the challenges they'll face against Portugal, but it should give them confidence defensively.
Portugal vs. Slovenia betting picks
As usual, the value lies in player bets. Here are our picks:
Bernardo Silva Over 0.5 Shots on Target
At odds of +120 with bet365, Portugal's Bernardo Silva is well-priced to get a shot on target. The Manchester City star has already scored in this tournament and consistently poses an offensive threat.
During the qualifiers, Silva averaged 1.61 shots on target per game, increasing to 2.0 per 90 minutes in Euro 2024. Such stats make +120 odds quite appealing.
Benjamin Sesko to Score
Benjamin Sesko is a player to watch, and despite not scoring yet in the tournament, he remains a significant threat. The focal point of Slovenia's attack, Sesko is known for his ability to score from various positions, including long-range shots.
He had 16 goals for RB Leipzig last season, averaging 0.83 goals per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. At +500, he is a compelling choice for a goal.
Recap - Portugal vs. Slovenia betting picks
To recap, the two recommended bets for this game are:
Bernardo Silva Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +120 with bet365
Benjamin Sesko to Score @ +500 with bet365
