The second game on Friday, the second quarter-final at Euro 2024, is another showdown between two heavyweights. Portugal faces off against France in a match between two nations that have both tasted major international success in recent years.
Get ready as the Euro 2016 champions take on the 2018 world champions at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg. Read on for our Portugal vs France predictions.
Portugal vs France prediction
For the Portugal vs France match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Portugal based on our analysis.
The French passed the test against Belgium, but they looked vulnerable on the counter-attack in that game, and they haven’t been at their best offensively in this tournament. So, don’t be surprised if the Portuguese edge this one.
Our predictions for this clash between Portugal and France are as follows:
Portugal to Win @ +240 with bet365
Rafael Leao to Score or Assist @ +210 with bet365
Nuno Mendes to be Booked @ +500 with bet365
Portugal vs France betting odds
At the time of writing, the betting suggests that Portugal has a 29.4% chance of winning, while a France win has an implied probability of 41.7%.
Using our own calculations, we’ve landed on a win probability of 33.3% for Portugal and 38.1% for France.
Portugal vs France head-to-head statistics
These two famously met in the final of Euro 2016 in Paris, where Portugal won by a goal to nil after extra time. Since then, they’ve met on three occasions, two of which ended in draws, with France winning by a goal to nil in Lisbon back in 2020.
Portugal vs France preview
This match will be played on 07/05/2024 at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg). Kickoff will be at 3:00 PM ET.
Portugal came very close to an early exit against Slovenia, who not long before taking some of the worst penalties this competition has ever seen had a golden chance to progress as Benjamin Sesko waltzed through on goal in splendid isolation, only to fire his effort straight at the grateful Diogo Costa.
In the shootout, Portugal’s quality under pressure shone through, but it was a scare nonetheless and a wake-up call.
Roberto Martinez’s team has quality in all areas, make no mistake about that, but it hasn’t exactly been the well-oiled machine that it could be, instead playing in fits and starts. Improvement is needed if Portugal is to regain the title that they denied France back in 2016.
Fortunately for the slightly underperforming Portuguese, the French have underwhelmed in Germany so far too.
Like their opponents, Les Bleus have top-tier players in abundance, but their class hasn’t shone through yet. They were sloppy and lacking in end-product when sneaking ahead of Austria on match-day one, while they were very lucky to draw 0-0 with the Netherlands too.
A draw with Poland followed, before Didier Deschamps’ men just about got past Belgium, courtesy of yet another own goal, meaning that this is now a French team that has reached the quarter-finals without scoring a goal from open play.
The fact that the French have gotten this far without scoring from open play would almost be impressive if it wasn’t so pitiful. They’ve ridden their luck and must now deliver a performance of real substance.
Portugal vs France betting picks
I’m throwing three darts at this quarter-final, all of which appear to be available at user-friendly prices in the early betting.
Portugal to Win
I don’t think the Portuguese have been overly impressive at this tournament, but as mentioned above, the French have created an even worse impression, so I’m struggling to agree with the disparity in the odds here.
I think, all in all, the French, given the quality and depth of their squad, should be favorites, but I don’t think their superiority should be as sizable as it is in the current betting. Therefore, taking the Portuguese to win at inflated odds offers some value for money as I see it.
After all, it is Roberto Martinez’s men who’ve shown more in terms of tangible end-product and goal-scoring ability, while they ought to be suited by playing on the break in this game.
The Belgians could (and probably should) have had plenty of counter-attacking joy against a fairly open-looking French team in that last-16 encounter, especially during the first half, and I think that a Portuguese side containing the pace and power of Rafael Leao and the guile and creativity of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva can better advantage.
Rafael Leao to Score or Assist
I’m very much of the opinion that Rafael Leao’s blistering pace and direct approach can prove fruitful for the Portuguese here, so much so that he looks well worth betting on to make a telling contribution by scoring or registering an assist.
The AC Milan man enjoyed a promising domestic campaign in 2023/24, scoring nine goals, posting nine assists in Serie A, where he averages a chunky 0.64 goals and assists per game. He also contributed seven goals and assists combined in the Europa League, plus two goals in the Coppa Italia.
He’s yet to score or assist at this tournament, but he’s looked dangerous, and he really does look suited to the task of hitting the French on the break.
Nuno Mendes to be Booked
Last but certainly not least, Nuno Mendes is worth betting on to pick up his first booking of the tournament at odds of +500.
The PSG man was starved of game-time for the French giants last season, but he did play a bit, and in all competitions, he collected an average of 0.38 cards per 90 minutes.
Making just over one foul per game on average, he’s been on his best behavior in Germany so far, but tasked with handling the interchanging Griezmann, Mbappe, Thuram and probably at some point Dembele too, the fullback could have his hands full and thus revert to his old ways.
Don’t be surprised to see the ref wave a card in Mendes’ direction at some point in this game. I certainly won’t be.
Recap - Portugal vs France betting picks
In summary, the recommended bets ahead of Portugal vs France are:
Portugal to Win @ +240 with bet365
Rafael Leao to Score or Assist @ +210 with bet365
Nuno Mendes to be Booked @ +500 with bet365
