Somehow, without dazzling the crowd, the Three Lions find themselves in another semi-final. On Wednesday evening, they'll take on the Netherlands. Can they reach a second final under Gareth Southgate? Read on for our Netherlands vs England predictions.
Netherlands vs England prediction
For the Netherlands vs England match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for the Netherlands based on our analysis.
The English have "got the job done" in Germany so far, but they’ve certainly ridden their luck, and that luck may run out against a side that has simply shown more offensive quality.
Our predictions for this semi-final clash between the Netherlands and England are below:
Netherlands to Win @ +210 with bet365
Xavi Simons to Score or Assist @ +225 with bet365
Netherlands vs England betting odds
The early betting ahead of this game has the Netherlands with a 32.3% chance of winning, while the English have a win probability of 40%.
Using our own calculations, we’ve assigned a win probability of 36.4% to the Dutch and 38.1% to England.
Netherlands vs England head-to-head statistics
The Netherlands and the Three Lions have not met since 2019, when the men in Orange triumphed (after extra time) in the UEFA Nations League semi-final.
The Netherlands have won two of the four renewals of this fixture since 2012, with the English picking up one win during that time. The pair haven’t met at a major tournament since Euro 1996.
Netherlands vs England preview
This match will take place on 07/10/2024 at Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund). Kickoff will be at 3:00 PM ET.
Known as a nation that favors attractive, free-flowing football, the Dutch have rather lost their way in recent years, but we’ve seen something of a resurgence from the men in Orange at this tournament.
They remain lightyears away from the total football played so beautifully by the likes of Neeskens and Cruyff, but at a tournament where entertaining and attacking football has been in incredibly short supply, Ronald Koeman’s men have been among the best performers.
Against the Romanians in the first knockout round, the Dutch got on the front foot and attacked with purpose for the duration, creating an abundance of chances and scoring three goals.
They had to work a little harder last time out, but eventually, their final-third quality shone through as they beat the Turks by two goals to one.
Entertainment and attacking football are two things that the Three Lions have shown little interest in at this tournament.
Gareth Southgate’s men have shown a clear preference for having a solid base and for taking the sting out of games. Such a style has clearly worked, as they’re in the semis after all, but it has done little to inspire fans, nor has it filled anyone with the confidence that the English can actually go out and better a top side.
Maybe this will be the year that the Three Lions deliver success on the biggest stage, but if they’re going to do that, they’ll likely have to improve offensively.
Netherlands vs England betting picks
At the time of writing, the early betting leads me towards three plays ahead of this game, all of which focus on the Dutch and all of which look generously priced. Here goes.
Netherlands to Win
As far as I’m concerned, on all available evidence, the Netherlands have shown more than enough to suggest that they can outscore this rather placid England team, so the Dutch ought to come into the game with an eye on getting forward and making things happen.
If they take such an approach, they’ll likely come out on top given England’s lack of offensive willingness.
Of course, we saw the Swiss switch to a more cautious approach against Southgate’s men, but I can’t imagine the Dutch following suit.
At every turn, we’ve seen this Netherlands side create lots of chances, and the same simply cannot be said for the Three Lions, so I’m struggling to agree with the disparity in pricing here. To my eyes, +210 on a Dutch win in regulation time looks like value for money.
Xavi Simons to Score or Assist
Cody Gakpo has grabbed many of the Dutch headlines, and rightly so given his goal-scoring antics, but Xavi Simons has arguably been just as integral to the Netherlands’ success in Germany so far.
The RB Leipzig man entered this tournament with plenty of experience playing on German soil, and that experience has clearly helped. Simons is yet to get on the score-sheet at Euro 2024, but he has provided three assists, averaging a lofty 0.74 assists per 90 minutes.
Based on his creative performance alone, the 21-year-old looks generously priced here, but even more so when we factor in that he’s looked a danger from a shooting perspective.
He was quite frankly robbed of a perfectly good goal by English incompetence with VAR against the French, while he’s averaging 1.97 shots per game. This is also a player who scored eight goals for Leipzig last season, so he’s not averse to scoring.
All in all, given his numbers and general threat he’s offered in Germany, he looks a good bet to score or register (another) assist all the time +225 is available.
Xavi Simons Over 0.5 Shots on Target
In addition to betting on Xavi Simons to score or assist, I’ve got to have some of him to shoot on target just once at odds of +150.
The Dutchman hasn’t shied away from shooting at this tournament, shooting no less than eight times in five appearances, while this is a man who averaged 1.05 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga last season. That’ll do for me given the odds available.
Recap - Netherlands vs England betting picks
In summary, the recommended bets ahead of Netherlands vs England are as follows:
Netherlands to Win @ +210 with bet365
Xavi Simons to Score or Assist @ +225 with bet365
Xavi Simons Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +150 with bet365
