On Saturday night, it’s back to home base for TFC, who return to play in front of their own fans at BMO Field having struggled of late. Can they finally regain the winning thread by beating a similarly out-of-form Philadelphia Union side?
This really is a big game for both teams. Read on for our Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union predictions.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction
For the Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union game prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-2 tie based on our analysis.
Both teams have been leaking goals of late, so this will likely be seen as an opportunity to thrive offensively by both, so don’t be surprised if the goals arrive at BMO Field, but can either come out on top?
See below for our Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union predictions:
Over 3.0 Asian Total @ -105 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Philadelphia Union Over 1.5 Team Goals @ +138 with BetMGM
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Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union betting odds
At the time of writing, the odds (Moneyline) point towards a 47.6% probability that the hosts win this game. They also suggest that the visitors have a 32.3% chance of winning.
Using our own calculations, we believe that the hosts have a 44.4% chance of winning, while the visitors have a 33.9% chance.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head statistics
When the pair met earlier in the campaign, they tied 0-0 in Philly. Before that, each team won two of the previous four renewals of this fixture.
It’s worth noting that this is a fixture that rarely sees a shortage of goals. Sure, the pair tied 0-0 when they last met, but prior to that, at least three goals were scored in ten renewals on the spin, with four or more goals being scored in six of those ten.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union preview
This game will be played on 13/07/2024 at BMO Field. Kick off will be at 7:30 PM local time.
There was little improvement from the Toronto FC boys last time out as they slumped to defeat on the road in Columbus, losing by four goals to nil.
Not for the first time this season, John Herdman’s men looked lost defensively, while they struggled to stamp their authority on the game offensively too, failing to score for the second time in four games.
What’s more, the TFC boys have scored just four goals in their last six games, scoring more than once in none of those six. Therein lies the problem.
We know that Herdman has offensive talent at his disposal. Both Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernadeschi are among the finest attackers in Major League Soccer, but it’s becoming more and more evident that the Italian pair turn up when they want, which is costing TFC.
Fortunately for the hosts, they can score goals at home, while the visitors have also struggled of late, winning none of their last nine fixtures, five of which they’ve lost.
Like the hosts, the Philly boys have often conceded too many goals. Even when they’ve thrived offensively, the fruits of their offensive labor have come out a price, with them conceding far too much, both in terms of chances and goals.
We’ve now seen Jim Curtin’s team concede multiple goals in six of their last seven games, so there’s no reason why the hosts shouldn’t fancy themselves to score goals here.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union picks
As we gear up for this game between TFC and the Union, two bets stand out from a value betting point of view.
Over 3.0 Asian Total
From a betting point of view, I really am finding it hard to shy away from a bet of ‘Over 3.0 Asian Total’, which for those who don’t know, means we get the win if the game contains four or more goals, while we get a refund if only three goals are scored.
In five of Philly’s last seven games, three or more goals have been scored, with four of those five containing four or more goals. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that the hosts have been involved in lots of high-scoring games of late and odds of -105 look on the generous side.
After all, we know that both teams have struggled hugely from a defensive point of view, with the visitors conceding 12 goals in their last three road games and the hosts conceding two or more in their last four at home.
Philadelphia Union Over 1.5 Team Goals
I’m also taken by the odds available on ‘Philadelphia Union Over 1.5 Team Goals’. Sure, this is a team struggling to get positive results, but they can hurt teams, so much so that they can do some damage against a very weak TFC defense.
OK, they did fail to get on the scoresheet against the Red Bulls last time out, but they still created lots of chances, while main man Daniel Gazdag looked hungry, which always bodes well, while they have scored at least twice in each of their last three on the road, as well as in nine of their last ten.
Moreover, the Union continues to be one of the highest scoring away teams in the Eastern Conference, notching an average of 2.09 goals per road game. I’m not ignoring such a stat.
Recap - Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union best bets
There we have it, the best bets for Toronto FC vs Philadelphia:
Over 3.0 Asian Total @ -105 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Philadelphia Union Over 1.5 Team Goals @ +138 with BetMGM
