Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul prediction, picks & best bets

The Leagues Cup continues this weekend and on Sunday evening, the Philadelphia Union takes on Cruz Azul at Subaru Park.

Both teams will be looking to progress with a positive result, though the only result that would count as positive for the visitors would be a win, so it is they who are in the tougher position. Read on for our Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul predictions.

Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul prediction

For the Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for the Union based on our analysis.

The visitors are in more desperate need of a win here, but are they equipped to get it? That’s the question. The hosts are strong at home and could be patient before picking off their opponents on the break.

Our picks for the Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul are as follows:

Philadelphia Union to Win @ +125 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul betting odds

As the Moneyline odds below show, the hosts are the most likely winners, with a current implied winning probability of 44.%.

All implied probabilities, plus our adjusted probabilities, and the differences are shown below.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted odds	Difference
Philadelphia Union	+125	44.4%	46.5%	+2.1%
Cruz Azul	+170	37%	30.3%	-6.7%
Tie	+265	27.4%	22.2%	-5.2%

Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul head-to-head statistics

There isn’t a head-to-head record for this fixture. This will be the first ever meeting between the pair.

Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul preview

This game will take place on 04/08/2024 at Subaru Park. Kick off will be at 20:00 local time.

The boys from Philly continued to get the job done last time out, beating fellow Major League Soccer side Charlotte FC by a goal to nil in front of a home crowd, securing their third straight success.

Not only did Jim Curtin’s men pick up another win, but they also collected their second clean sheet in as many matches.

Prior to that narrow win, the Union had been scoring for fun, notching eight in two games, with the talismanic Daniel Gazdag looking especially threatening, but they’ve also done a great job of nullifying teams and keeping things quiet at the back.

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Thanks to that result against Charlotte, the hosts know that they don’t need to win this game to progress, but they’re in form and have momentum behind them, so don’t be surprised if they pick up another win.

In contrast, the Mexicans will need to win this game. The question is can they beat a strong home team?

Lacking in final-third quality, the Cruz Azul boys disappointed against Charlotte, tying 0-0 before losing on penalties, while they stuttered their way to a point when tying 1-1 in their previous domestic game too.

Just one win in their last four on the road would also suggest that the visitors could struggle at Subaru Park, where the Union can give anyone a beating if on song.

Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul picks

Ahead of this Leagues Cup game, I’m keeping it simple. The home win looks available at a price which I feel is slightly bigger than it should be, so there’s value to be had.

Philadelphia Union to Win

For my money, all the time odds of +125 are available, the hosts are worth betting on to get the job done here.

Sure, it is the visitors who NEED to win, but that leaves the Union boys in the fortunate position of not really having the pressure on them. Under such conditions, Curtin’s men can thrive.

I’d question the firepower that Cruz Azul has on the road. Sure, they’ve made a good start to their Liga MX campaign, but they looked a little toothless when failing to score against Charlotte last time out, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a visit to Subaru Park, where Philly are not only strong offensively, but tidy defensively too.

The visitors have also failed to score in two of their last four travelling games, three of which they’ve failed to win, losing two.

If we factor in that some of Philly’s key offensive players, such as Gazdag and Baribo, who has now scored five goals in four games, are in great form, then it’s easy to conclude that the hosts just tick a few too many boxes to be avoided at odds of +125.