Inter Miami vs Toronto FC prediction, picks & best bets

On Thursday evening, things start to get real serious in the Leagues Cup. We’ve reached the knockout rounds. In this match, Inter Miami will host Toronto FC.

Can the hosts bounce back after that loss last time out? Will the visitors extend their unbeaten run and spring something of a surprise? Read on for our Inter Miami vs Toronto FC predictions.

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC prediction

For the Inter Miami vs Toronto FC match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for Inter Miami based on our analysis.

The hosts did lose to Tigres last time out, but the result didn’t exactly tell the full story as they dominated proceedings. The visitors have tightened up, but they're not scoring many goals, so don’t be surprised if they're edged out here.

See below for our Inter Miami vs Toronto FC predictions and picks:

Under 3.0 Asian Total Goals @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Best MLS betting offers

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC betting odds

The table below shows the implied probabilities for the Moneyline odds as of 07/08/2024, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Inter Miami	-145	59.2%	55.6%	-3.6%
Toronto FC	+400	20.0%	20.5%	0.0%
Tie	+275	26.7%	23.9%	-2.8%

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC head-to-head statistics

This will be the second time that the visitors have traveled to Chase Stadium this season. Earlier in the campaign, they lost 3-1 and will now be hoping for better.

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC preview

This game will take place on 08/08/2024 at Chase Stadium. Kick off will be at 20:30 local time.

With them going along at a very nice pace in Major League Soccer, I’m sure the Inter Miami boys won’t turn their noses up at some Leagues Cup glory, but can they get the job done in this competition without Messi, who is currently sidelined with injury?

View post on X

Being without their talisman wasn’t an issue when they got the job done against Mexican opponents Puebla in their first group game, but they looked a little lacking in end product against Tigres last time out.

Fortunately for the hosts, they’re up against a TFC side that typically struggles to win on the road, so they should be confident of progressing.

The visitors have found it tough to play their best soccer away from the comforts of BMO Field this season, but in this competition, they’ve tightened up a little and have become harder to beat, which means that they may just fancy themselves to cause an upset in Fort Lauderdale.

The TFC boys have kept two clean sheets in their last three games, which is a big improvement on what went before. Maybe the penny has finally dropped for John Herdman’s men, who’ve been searching for solidity for several months.

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC picks

Just the one bet appeals at the early odds and that’s a bet that favors a relatively low-scoring fixture.

Under 3.0 Asian Total Goals

I very much make the hosts the most likely winners here, though as the table above suggests, I’m not entirely sure that they’re a value price. In fact, I don’t think they are, so betting on the home win offers negative value, of that I’m sure.

What is worth betting on, though, is ‘Under 3.0 Asian Total Goals’, which looks a little generously priced at odds of +100, and here’s why:

For starters, the visitors have tightened up of late, conceding just one goal in their last three, scoring only three goals (in regulation time) during the spell. They’ve adopted a more cautious approach and it’s working, so there’s very little chance of them going to Chase Stadium and being overly cavalier. Doing so would be stupid, let’s face it.

Moreover, as much as the hosts can be a huge threat going forward, they are without key man Lionel Messi. When the Argentine is absent, the hosts are much less threatening, as we’ve seen several times in recent months.

Without magician Messi, they’ve scored more than twice in none of their last three, while they’ve only conceded more than once in one of those, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if this match contains less than four goals.

All in all, a bet on ‘Under 3.0 Asian Total Goals’ stands out as a viable option. For those who are unsure, this bet means we get a refund if exactly three goals are scored, winning if less than three go in.