The Tampa Bay Lightning (19-11-2) welcome the Montreal Canadiens (15-17-3) to Amalie Arena for a compelling Atlantic Division matchup on Sunday afternoon, with both teams coming off impressive performances against Florida.
The Lightning, who lead the NHL in scoring with 3.94 goals per game, have dominated the recent series history with an 8-1-1 record in their last 10 meetings against Montreal.
The Canadiens enter this contest with renewed confidence after a stunning 4-0 road victory over Florida, highlighted by Kirby Dach's two-goal performance and Jakub Dobes' shutout in his NHL debut.
Tampa Bay's high-powered offense, led by their third-ranked power play unit converting at 27.1%, will test a Montreal defense that has struggled this season, ranking 30th in goals against.
While the Lightning aim to maintain their strong home record of 10-5-1, the Canadiens seek to build on their recent momentum having won four of their last five games.
This Atlantic Division battle presents an intriguing contrast of styles, as Tampa Bay's explosive offense meets Montreal's improving young squad in what promises to be an entertaining Sunday afternoon showdown.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 59.33% chance of defeating the Canadiens.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
59.33%
40.67%
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning: 59.33% win probability
- Superior offensive efficiency (132 goals scored in 33 games, 4.0 goals per game)
- Better defensive record (92 goals against in 33 games, 2.79 GAA)
- Strong recent form (WWLWW in last 5 games)
Montreal Canadiens: 40.67% win probability
- Poor defensive performance (123 goals against in 35 games, 3.51 GAA)
- Lower points total (33 points vs Lightning's 42 points)
- Inferior goal differential (-18 compared to Lightning's +40)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Montreal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
83%
Montreal Canadiens
17%
Apr 4, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
4 : 7
Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Jan 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Nov 8, 2023
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 21, 2023
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 18, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
