The Dallas Stars (21-13-1) welcome the Ottawa Senators (19-15-2) to the American Airlines Center on Thursday night in what promises to be an intriguing cross-conference matchup.
The Stars enter the contest riding momentum from their impressive 5-1 victory over the Blackhawks, while the Senators come in fresh off a confidence-boosting 3-1 win against the Wild.
Dallas's formidable defense, anchored by goaltender Jake Oettinger's 2.38 goals-against average, will face a stern test against Ottawa's potent offense led by Brady Tkachuk's 16 goals and Tim Stutzle's team-leading 40 points.
Both teams have shown strong offensive capabilities this season, with Dallas averaging 3.2 goals per game and Ottawa maintaining a dangerous power play unit that converts 25% of their opportunities.
The historical edge at American Airlines Center belongs to the Stars, who have claimed victory in four of their last five home meetings against the Senators.
As these teams prepare to face off, several key factors could influence the outcome, including Dallas's top-ranked penalty kill unit (84.6%) and Ottawa's adjustment to playing without injured goalkeeper Linus Ullmark.
Dallas Stars vs. Ottawa Senators: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Stars vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Stars a 57.33% chance of defeating the Senators.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
57.33%
42.67%
Ottawa Senators
Dallas Stars: 57.33% win probability
- Superior defensive efficiency (91 goals against in 36 games)
- Better points-per-game ratio (1.25 points per game)
- Strong home position in Central Division (4th place with 45 points)
Ottawa Senators: 42.67% win probability
- Lower win percentage (19 wins in 36 games)
- Weaker goal differential (+7 compared to Stars' +25)
- Inconsistent road performance (8th place in Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Dallas Stars | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline |
Dallas Stars vs. Ottawa Senators form
Dallas Stars vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Dallas Stars
33%
Ottawa Senators
67%
Feb 23, 2024
Ottawa Senators
4 : 1
Dallas Stars
Dec 16, 2023
Dallas Stars
5 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Dec 9, 2022
Dallas Stars
4 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Oct 24, 2022
Ottawa Senators
4 : 2
Dallas Stars
Oct 30, 2021
Dallas Stars
1 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Oct 17, 2021
Ottawa Senators
3 : 2
Dallas Stars
