The Toronto Maple Leafs (23-13-2) will face off against the New York Islanders (14-17-7) at UBS Arena on Thursday night in what promises to be an intriguing Eastern Conference matchup.
Fresh off a 3-1 victory over these same Islanders, the Maple Leafs enter the contest led by the red-hot Mitch Marner, who has recorded at least one point in nine consecutive games.
The Islanders, currently second-to-last in the Metropolitan Division with 35 points, are looking to bounce back after dropping five of their last seven games.
While Toronto boasts a potent offense averaging 3.11 goals per game, New York's struggles are highlighted by their league-worst power play conversion rate and a concerning 3.18 goals against average.
The teams have split their previous two meetings this season, with the Islanders claiming a 6-3 victory on December 21st before Toronto's recent 3-1 win.
As these Atlantic and Metropolitan Division rivals prepare to clash at UBS Arena, both teams' recent form and historical matchup data suggest an compelling battle lies ahead.
New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: who will win?
For tonight's New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 56% chance of defeating the Isles.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
56%
44%
New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs: 56% win probability
- Higher league position (3rd in Eastern Conference vs 13th)
- Superior goal-scoring ability (118 goals for vs 102)
- Better win-loss record (23-13 vs 14-17)
New York Islanders: 44% win probability
- Poor goal differential (-20 compared to Leafs' +12)
- Lower points total (35 points vs 48 points)
- Inconsistent recent form (LLWLW with only 14 wins in 38 games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| New York Islanders | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline |
New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
New York Islanders
83%
Toronto Maple Leafs
17%
Dec 31, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 1
New York Islanders
Dec 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 6
New York Islanders
Feb 6, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 3
New York Islanders
Jan 12, 2024
New York Islanders
4 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 12, 2023
New York Islanders
4 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 21, 2023
New York Islanders
7 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
