The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-15-2) are set to host the Dallas Stars (27-14-1) at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two of the NHL's top performers this season.
Both teams enter the contest following recent setbacks, with the Stars' impressive seven-game winning streak halted by Ottawa in a 3-2 loss, while the Maple Leafs look to bounce back from consecutive defeats after their own five-game victory run came to an end.
The Stars bring their formidable defensive record to Toronto, allowing just 2.5 goals per game (fourth-best in the NHL) and boasting an impressive 85% penalty kill rate, while the Maple Leafs counter with their potent offense led by William Nylander's 24 goals and Mitch Marner's 59 points.
Recent history at Scotiabank Arena favors the home team, with Toronto winning nine of their last eleven meetings against Dallas on home ice.
The matchup features an intriguing goaltending battle between Dallas' Jake Oettinger (2.35 GAA, .910 save percentage) and Toronto's Joseph Woll (2.50 GAA, .912 save percentage), both of whom have been crucial to their teams' success this season.
As both teams aim to strengthen their positions atop their respective divisions, this cross-conference clash could provide valuable insights into their championship aspirations for the 2024-25 season.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars matchup, our predictive model gives the Stars a 55.33% chance of defeating the Leafs.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
55.33%
44.67%
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dallas Stars: 55.33% win probability
- Superior defensive record (104 goals against in 42 games)
- Better goal differential (+32 compared to Leafs' +11)
- Stronger recent form (LWWWW vs Leafs' LLWWW)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 44.67% win probability
- Weaker defensive performance (124 goals against in 44 games)
- Less efficient scoring rate (135 goals in 44 games vs Stars' 136 in 42)
- Inconsistent recent performance (LLWWW with more losses)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
100%
Dallas Stars
0%
Dec 19, 2024
Dallas Stars
3 : 5
Toronto Maple Leafs
Feb 8, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Dallas Stars
Oct 27, 2023
Dallas Stars
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 7, 2022
Dallas Stars
0 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 20, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Dallas Stars
Apr 8, 2022
Dallas Stars
3 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
