The Toronto Maple Leafs (30-17-2) head to Canadian Tire Centre to face their provincial rivals, the Ottawa Senators (24-20-4), in what promises to be another intense chapter of the Battle of Ontario on Saturday night.
Toronto enters the contest looking to bounce back from a surprising 5-1 loss to Columbus, while the Senators aim to snap a two-game losing streak after being shut out by Boston in their previous outing.
The Maple Leafs' offensive firepower, led by Mitch Marner's impressive 67 points and William Nylander's 28 goals, contrasts sharply with Ottawa's recent scoring drought of just two goals in their last three games.
Both teams have shown defensive prowess this season, with Ottawa allowing 2.77 goals per game (ninth in the league) and Toronto maintaining a respectable 2.90 goals against average.
Recent history between these teams has been remarkably even, with the rivals splitting their last ten meetings, setting the stage for another closely contested matchup.
As these longtime rivals prepare to face off, special teams could prove decisive, with both clubs converting over 21 percent of their power play opportunities this season.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: who will win?
For tonight's Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 65.67% chance of defeating the Sens.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
65.67%
34.33%
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs: 65.67% win probability
- Superior overall record (30 wins in 49 games vs Senators' 24 wins in 48 games)
- More potent offense (153 goals scored vs Senators' 132 goals)
- Better points accumulation (62 points vs Senators' 52 points)
Ottawa Senators: 34.33% win probability
- Lower win percentage (24 wins in 48 games, 0.500 vs Leafs' 0.612)
- Less efficient scoring (132 goals in 48 games vs Leafs' 153 in 49)
- Recent inconsistency (LLWWL form vs Leafs' LWWWL)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline |
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Ottawa Senators
83%
Toronto Maple Leafs
17%
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Sep 24, 2024
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 6
Ottawa Senators
Feb 11, 2024
Ottawa Senators
5 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 28, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Dec 8, 2023
Ottawa Senators
3 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
