The Toronto Maple Leafs bring their impressive four-game winning streak to PPG Paints Arena as they face the Pittsburgh Penguins in a crucial Sunday afternoon matchup.
Toronto, currently leading the Atlantic Division, has been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging 4.33 goals in their last three games while maintaining a solid defensive record of just 2.83 goals against per game.
The Penguins, despite recently snapping a four-game losing streak with a victory over Philadelphia, find themselves at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and dealing with potential absences of key players Sidney Crosby and Matt Grzelcyk.
The season series between these teams stands deadlocked at 1-1, with Toronto holding a 6-4-0 record in their last ten meetings against Pittsburgh.
While the Maple Leafs' special teams have been clicking with a 23% power play success rate, the Penguins' defensive struggles are evident as they've allowed 17 goals in their last three home games.
As these Original Six rivals prepare to face off, the contrast between Toronto's road success (winners of six of their last seven away games) and Pittsburgh's recent home ice challenges sets the stage for what promises to be an intriguing NHL matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 75% chance of defeating the Pens.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
75%
25%
Pittsburgh Penguins
Toronto Maple Leafs: 75% win probability
- Strong offensive output (188 goals scored in 59 games)
- Excellent win-loss record (37-20 overall record)
- Top-3 position in Eastern Conference (76 points in 59 games)
Pittsburgh Penguins: 25% win probability
- Poor defensive record (227 goals against, worst in Eastern Conference)
- Recent poor form (LWLLL in last 5 games)
- Low points total (57 points in 62 games, 15th in Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
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| Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their impressive four-game winning streak as they face off against the struggling Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday afternoon.
Toronto enters the matchup with significant momentum, currently leading the Atlantic Division and boasting a potent offense that has averaged 4.33 goals in their last three games.
The Maple Leafs' dynamic duo of Mitch Marner (74 points) and William Nylander (59 points) continues to drive their offensive success, with Marner's playmaking abilities particularly evident in his 56 assists this season.
Pittsburgh, despite coming off a 5-4 victory over Philadelphia that snapped a four-game losing streak, finds themselves at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and facing defensive challenges, allowing a concerning 3.59 goals per game.
The Penguins' offensive hopes rest heavily on Sidney Crosby, who leads the team with 61 points, though his questionable status for this game due to an undisclosed injury could significantly impact Pittsburgh's chances.
The season series between these teams stands tied at 1-1, with Toronto holding a slight historical edge, going 6-4-0 in their last 10 meetings against Pittsburgh.
Special teams could prove decisive in this matchup, with Toronto converting 23% of their power play opportunities while facing a Pittsburgh penalty kill unit ranked 18th in the league.
The Maple Leafs' defensive improvement, allowing just eight goals in their last three road games, coupled with Anthony Stolarz's impressive .927 save percentage, gives Toronto a significant advantage heading into this contest.
With the Penguins playing on consecutive days and potentially missing key personnel, Toronto appears well-positioned to secure their fifth consecutive victory and strengthen their grip on the Atlantic Division lead.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Pittsburgh Penguins
33%
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
Dec 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins
5 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 12, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 8, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 17, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
7 : 0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Nov 26, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins
3 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 27, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
