The Washington Capitals (38-13-8) are set to face off against the Ottawa Senators (29-25-4) in what promises to be an intriguing NHL matchup at Capital One Arena on Monday evening.
The Capitals enter the contest with impressive momentum, showcasing their offensive prowess with 214 goals this season while maintaining a strong .712 points percentage.
Ottawa, coming off a 4-1 defeat against the Jets, will look to bounce back despite struggling on the road, having scored 160 goals this season while allowing 164.
Washington's stellar goaltending duo, featuring Charlie Lindgren who boasts a .906 save percentage, could prove decisive in this matchup.
Both teams have shown effectiveness on special teams, with the Capitals converting 24.10% of their power plays and the Senators not far behind at 23.28%.
As these Eastern Conference rivals prepare to battle it out at Capital One Arena, fans can expect an intense showdown between two teams with contrasting fortunes this season.
This NHL prediction analysis examines all the key factors that could influence this compelling matchup between the Capitals and Senators.
Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 53% chance of defeating the Sens.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
53%
47%
Ottawa Senators
Washington Capitals: 53% win probability
- League-leading offense (215 goals for, highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong defensive record (157 goals against, 4th best in East)
- Excellent overall record (38-14, 1st in Metropolitan Division)
Ottawa Senators: 47% win probability
- Poor recent form (WLLLL in last 5 games)
- Struggling offense (166 goals scored, 4th lowest in division)
- Road game disadvantage (9th place in Eastern Conference with 64 points)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Washington Capitals | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators preview
The Washington Capitals (38-13-8) are set to host the Ottawa Senators (29-25-4) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Capital One Arena on Monday evening.
The Capitals enter this contest as clear favorites with a -210 moneyline, backed by their impressive .712 points percentage and their position as one of the NHL's more consistent performers this season.
Ottawa comes into this matchup looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-1 defeat against the Jets, where their offensive struggles were evident as they managed to convert just one of their 25 shots on goal.
The Senators' special teams have been a bright spot this season, converting 23.28% of their power play opportunities, though they'll need to improve their overall offensive output, having netted 160 goals (26th in pro hockey) this campaign.
Washington's defensive prowess will be on display with Charlie Lindgren expected between the pipes, bringing his solid 66-49-15 career record and .906 save percentage to the contest.
The Capitals' balanced attack has produced 214 goals this season, with an impressive 40 power play goals ranking 8th in the NHL, demonstrating their ability to capitalize on man-advantage situations.
Both teams have shown contrasting forms in their recent outings, with Washington coming off a 5-2 loss to the Blues, while looking to maintain their strong home record at Capital One Arena.
According to sophisticated predictive models, the Capitals hold a 59% probability of victory, though the Senators' competitive spirit and power play efficiency could make this a closer contest than the odds suggest.
Key to watch will be how Ottawa's penalty kill unit, which has faced 171 power play attempts this season (10th in the NHL), handles Washington's efficient power play conversion rate of 24.10%.
With the total set at 6 goals, fans can expect an entertaining battle between two teams with contrasting styles and aspirations in this Eastern Conference clash.
Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators form
Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Washington Capitals
33%
Ottawa Senators
67%
Jan 31, 2025
Ottawa Senators
5 : 4
Washington Capitals
Jan 17, 2025
Ottawa Senators
0 : 1
Washington Capitals
Apr 7, 2024
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Feb 27, 2024
Washington Capitals
6 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Oct 18, 2023
Ottawa Senators
6 : 1
Washington Capitals
Dec 30, 2022
Washington Capitals
3 : 4
Ottawa Senators
