The Toronto Maple Leafs (36-20-2) are set to host the San Jose Sharks (15-36-9) at Scotiabank Arena on Monday night in what appears to be a lopsided matchup on paper.
The Maple Leafs enter the contest with momentum following their impressive 5-4 victory over the Boston Bruins, showcasing their potent offense that has produced 185 goals this season.
The Sharks, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-3 loss to the Canadiens and have struggled defensively, allowing 221 goals this season, while managing just 154 goals of their own.
Toronto's special teams could prove decisive, with their power play operating at an efficient 23.13% success rate, while San Jose has faced the third-most power play opportunities against in the NHL.
Despite the apparent mismatch, the Sharks' goaltender Anthony Stolarz has been a bright spot with a career .916 save percentage, giving San Jose a fighting chance to pull off an upset.
As these teams prepare to face off in Toronto, hockey fans will be watching closely to see if the Maple Leafs can maintain their dominant home form or if the Sharks can engineer an unexpected turnaround in their challenging season.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs San Jose Sharks matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 54% chance of defeating the Sharks.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
54%
46%
San Jose Sharks
Toronto Maple Leafs: 54% win probability
- Exceptional offensive output (194 goals for, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong winning record (38-20 record, 78 points in 60 games)
- Outstanding recent form (WWWWW in last 5 games)
San Jose Sharks: 46% win probability
- League-worst defensive record (230 goals against, highest in Western Conference)
- Poor overall record (15-37, lowest win total in Pacific Division)
- Struggling form (LLLLL in last 5 games, worst current streak in league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Toronto Maple Leafs | San Jose Sharks | |
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the struggling San Jose Sharks at Scotiabank Arena in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams on vastly different trajectories this season.
The Maple Leafs (36-20-2) enter this contest with considerable momentum, coming off an impressive 5-4 victory against the Boston Bruins, showcasing their offensive prowess with a robust 11.12% shooting percentage on the season.
Meanwhile, the Sharks (15-36-9) are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-3 loss to the Canadiens, as they continue to face challenges with their defensive game, having allowed 221 goals this season, one of the highest in the league.
Toronto's special teams have been particularly effective, converting 23.13% of their power play opportunities and maintaining a solid 79.19% penalty kill rate, which could prove decisive against a Sharks team that has struggled with discipline, facing the third-most power play opportunities against in the NHL.
The goaltending matchup will feature Anthony Stolarz, who brings an impressive .916 career save percentage, though he'll have his work cut out for him against Toronto's high-powered offense that has netted 185 goals this season.
The Maple Leafs' balanced scoring attack, with 148 goals at even strength and 37 on the power play, presents a significant challenge for a San Jose team that has managed just 154 goals total this season, ranking 29th in the NHL.
Statistical models heavily favor the home team, with Toronto holding a 73% win probability according to sophisticated simulation analysis.
While the Sharks have shown occasional flashes of competitiveness, their .325 points percentage and defensive struggles make them significant underdogs in this cross-conference matchup.
Look for the Maple Leafs to capitalize on their home-ice advantage and superior offensive firepower, though the Sharks' desperation for points could make this a more competitive contest than the odds suggest.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
San Jose Sharks
33%
Jan 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
7 : 1
San Jose Sharks
Jan 7, 2024
San Jose Sharks
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 1, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 1
San Jose Sharks
Oct 28, 2022
San Jose Sharks
4 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 27, 2021
San Jose Sharks
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 22, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 5
San Jose Sharks
