Fresh off a historic triple-double performance where Nikola Jokic became the first NBA player to record 30-20-20 in points, rebounds, and assists, the Denver Nuggets roll into Oklahoma City for a crucial Western Conference showdown.
The matchup features two of the league's most efficient offenses, with the Nuggets leading the NBA in field goal percentage while the Thunder boast the league's stingiest defense and lowest opponent shooting percentage.
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to protect their home court at Paycom Center against the defending champion Nuggets in what's shaping up to be a classic battle between unstoppable force and immovable object.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 70.33% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
70.33%
29.67%
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder: 70.33% win probability
- League-leading defense (Only 6,718 points against, best in Western Conference)
- Dominant recent form (Perfect WWWWW in last 5 games)
- Superior win-loss record (52-11, best in West with .825 win percentage)
Denver Nuggets: 29.67% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (WWLWL in last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (7,327 points against, significantly higher than OKC)
- Road game disadvantage (Playing against team with 52-11 home record)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets preview
The red-hot Thunder welcome the defending champion Nuggets to Paycom Center for what's shaping up to be a Western Conference heavyweight clash.
Fresh off a historic performance, Nikola Jokic enters this matchup having just become the first player ever to post a 30-20-20 game, dropping 31 points, 21 boards, and 22 dimes against Phoenix.
OKC's league-best defense will have their hands full containing Denver's surgical offense, which leads the NBA in field goal percentage behind Jokic's masterful orchestration.
The Thunder's young core has been nothing short of spectacular this season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning from his rest day to lead an OKC squad that's won eight of their last nine games.
While these teams split their previous two meetings this year, Sunday's matinee has major playoff seeding implications as both squads look to secure home-court advantage.
Keep an eye on the fascinating frontcourt battle between Jokic and rookie sensation Chet Holmgren, who's been a defensive force averaging 2.7 blocks per game.
The Thunder's league-leading defense (allowing just 106.9 points per game) faces its toughest test against a Nuggets team that just dropped 149 points on the Suns.
With both teams playing their best basketball of the season, this clash between the West's top defensive unit and the league's most efficient offense promises to be a chess match of contrasting styles.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
20%
Denver Nuggets
80%
Mar 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
0 : 0
Denver Nuggets
Nov 7, 2024
Denver Nuggets
124 : 122
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 25, 2024
Denver Nuggets
87 : 102
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 16, 2024
Denver Nuggets
94 : 124
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 1, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
105 : 100
Denver Nuggets
Dec 30, 2023
Denver Nuggets
93 : 119
Oklahoma City Thunder
