The TD Garden is set for a heavyweight showdown as the defending NBA champion Boston Celtics welcome the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder in what could be a Finals preview.
Both teams enter on hot streaks - the Celtics riding five straight wins at home while the Thunder look to bounce back after their seven-game winning streak was snapped by Denver on Monday.
The matchup pits the NBA's top three-point shooting Celtics against the league's stingiest perimeter defense, as the Boston Celtics aim to avenge their earlier season loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives OKC a 53% chance of defeating the C's.
Pre-game probabilities
Boston Celtics
Moneyline
Win %
47%
53%
Oklahoma City Thunder
Boston Celtics: 47% win probability
- Lower scoring output (7599 points scored vs Thunder's 7779)
- Recent schedule disadvantage (2nd game of back-to-back)
- Defensive vulnerability (7033 points against, higher than Thunder's 6961)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 53% win probability
- League-best win record (53-12 record shows dominant season performance)
- Elite defensive efficiency (6961 points against, lowest in Western Conference)
- Strong recent momentum (4-1 in last 5 games with LWWWW form)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Boston Celtics | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The TD Garden is set for a heavyweight clash as the Western Conference-leading Thunder roll into Boston looking to sweep their season series against the defending champs.
OKC's recent stumble against Denver - where they gave up 73 second-half points in a 140-127 loss - might've been just the wake-up call they needed before facing a red-hot Celtics squad that's won eight of their last ten.
The Thunder's lockdown defense, ranked first in both field goal and three-point percentage allowed, will face its toughest test against Boston's league-leading three-point offense, with the Celtics averaging a whopping 48 attempts per game from downtown.
Sam Hauser's explosive 33-point performance with nine threes against Utah shows just how dangerous Boston's supporting cast can be, even when their stars take a night off.
Lu Dort's career night of eight three-pointers and 26 points against Denver proves the Thunder aren't just the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander show anymore, though SGA's consistent 25+ point outings remain the engine of their offense.
The battle on the boards could prove decisive - Boston's ability to create second chances against OKC's 19th-ranked rebounding unit might be the difference-maker in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.
While both teams are missing a few rotation pieces, the Celtics' depth has been their secret weapon during this impressive homestand, where they've looked nearly unstoppable.
This matchup has all the makings of a potential Finals preview, with Boston's home-court advantage going up against an OKC team that's proven they can win anywhere, anytime.
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Boston Celtics
60%
Oklahoma City Thunder
40%
Mar 12, 2025
Boston Celtics
0 : 0
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jan 5, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
105 : 92
Boston Celtics
Apr 3, 2024
Boston Celtics
135 : 100
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jan 3, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 123
Boston Celtics
Jan 4, 2023
Oklahoma City Thunder
150 : 117
Boston Celtics
Nov 15, 2022
Boston Celtics
126 : 122
Oklahoma City Thunder
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