The TD Garden will host a tale of two very different seasons as the Tampa Bay Lightning bring their high-octane offense, averaging 3.49 goals per game, to face a Bruins squad that's been searching for answers with just three wins in their last ten outings.
While Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel have been lighting up scoreboards for Tampa with a combined 58 goals and 106 assists, Boston's defensive woes have been particularly glaring, having surrendered eight goals in their last two games.
The Boston Bruins (30-29-8) look to turn their fortunes around at home against a surging Tampa Bay Lightning (37-23-5) team that's been dominating the Atlantic Division this season.
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 60% chance of defeating the Bruins.
Pre-game probabilities
Boston Bruins
Moneyline
Win %
40%
60%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins: 40% win probability
- Struggling offense (182 goals scored, bottom third in conference)
- Poor recent form (LWWLL in last 5 games)
- Defensive issues (212 goals against, significantly worse than Lightning)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 60% win probability
- Elite offensive output (228 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong defensive efficiency (177 goals against, 5th best in conference)
- Better overall standing (5th place with 79 points vs Bruins' 12th place)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Boston Bruins | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The struggling Bruins host the red-hot Lightning at TD Garden in what's shaping up to be a classic Atlantic Division clash with plenty at stake.
Tampa's offense has been nothing short of electric lately, with Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel lighting up the scoreboard - they've combined for a ridiculous 58 goals and 106 assists this season.
Boston's been hit hard by their defensive woes, giving up eight goals in their last two games, though they're coming off a morale-boosting 3-2 win against the Panthers.
The Lightning's brick wall in net, Andrei Vasilevskiy, has been in stellar form with a .919 save percentage, while the Bruins' Jeremy Swayman's been fighting to find his rhythm.
Keep an eye on Victor Hedman, who's been a force for Tampa both defensively and on the attack, contributing 11 goals and 40 assists from the blue line.
David Pastrnak remains Boston's bright spot in an otherwise dim season, but he'll need more support from his teammates to crack Tampa's stingy defense that's allowing just 2.69 goals per game.
The Garden's gonna be rocking for this one, even if the home team's recent form hasn't given fans much to cheer about - just three wins in their last ten games tells the story.
With Tampa's offense firing on all cylinders and Boston's defense looking shaky, this matchup could get real interesting, real fast.
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
Boston Bruins
50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Mar 8, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
0 : 4
Boston Bruins
Jan 15, 2025
Boston Bruins
6 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 10, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 1
Boston Bruins
Mar 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
3 : 1
Boston Bruins
Feb 14, 2024
Boston Bruins
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 7, 2024
Boston Bruins
7 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
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