The surging Ottawa Senators bring their five-game winning streak to Scotiabank Arena for a Saturday night showdown against their provincial rivals, the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what promises to be a defensive chess match between two of the Atlantic Division's top teams.
While Toronto's high-powered offense led by Mitch Marner and William Nylander (57 goals, 90 assists combined) has been lighting up scoreboards all season, it's the stellar play of both goaltenders - Ottawa's Linus Ullmark (.911 save percentage) and Toronto's Anthony Stolarz (.920 save percentage) - that could make the difference.
The Maple Leafs (39-23-3) look to defend home ice against a Senators squad (35-25-5) that's allowed just six goals in their last three games, setting up what should be a classic installment in the Battle of Ontario.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Sens a 67.5% chance of defeating the Leafs.
Pre-game probabilities
Ottawa Senators
Moneyline
Win %
67.5%
32.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs
Ottawa Senators: 67.5% win probability
- Red-hot momentum (Perfect WWWWW recent form)
- Offensive efficiency (191 goals scored in 65 games, 2.94 goals per game)
- Strong defensive structure (185 goals against, better than Toronto's 193)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 32.5% win probability
- Poor recent form (LWLLL in last five games)
- Defensive inconsistency (193 goals against in 65 games)
- Declining home performance (Dropped to 4th in Eastern Conference from previous 2nd position)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Ottawa Senators | |
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| Moneyline |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators preview
The battle of Ontario heats up again as the red-hot Senators roll into Scotiabank Arena riding a five-game winning streak to face their provincial rivals.
Ottawa's defensive prowess has been turning heads lately, with the blue line duo of Chabot and Jensen shutting down opponents and helping limit teams to just six goals in their last three outings.
While the Sens' offense hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, the dynamic trio of Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Batherson has kept them competitive with timely scoring.
The Leafs counter with their own offensive firepower, as the electrifying pair of Marner and Nylander have already combined for 147 points this season, while Matthews continues to be a constant threat.
Between the pipes, it's shaping up to be a fantastic goaltending duel - Ullmark's steady .911 save percentage for Ottawa squares off against Stolarz, who's been a revelation for Toronto with a sparkling .920 save rate.
Toronto's recent acquisition of Chris Tanev has solidified their backend, forming a formidable partnership with Ekman-Larsson that's helped keep the Leafs' goals-against average under three.
This classic Canadian matchup has all the makings of a tight-checking, defensive battle, with both teams looking to strengthen their positions in a crowded Atlantic Division race.
With playoff implications on the line and both teams playing some of their best hockey of the season, expect the atmosphere at Scotiabank Arena to be electric from the opening faceoff.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
0%
Ottawa Senators
100%
Jan 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Sep 24, 2024
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 6
Ottawa Senators
Feb 11, 2024
Ottawa Senators
5 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 28, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
