The red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder (54-12) roll into Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum looking to build on their impressive season against a Bucks squad (37-28) that's searching for consistency in a challenging year.
This clash pits the NBA's fourth-best scoring offense in OKC (119.7 points per game) against Giannis Antetokounmpo and a Bucks team that's been surprisingly vulnerable on the defensive end this season, despite their typically strong home court advantage.
The Milwaukee Bucks will need their superstar Giannis, fresh off a 24-point performance against the Lakers, to counter Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's league-leading defense that's holding opponents to just 107.2 points per game.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 68.5% chance of defeating the Bucks.
Pre-game probabilities
Milwaukee Bucks
Moneyline
Win %
31.5%
68.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder
Milwaukee Bucks: 31.5% win probability
- Recent inconsistent form (2-3 in last 5 games, WWLLL)
- Defensive struggles (7427 points against, middle of the pack)
- Declining win rate (38-28 record, dropped to 4th in East)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 68.5% win probability
- League-leading win record (55-12 record, best in Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (7180 points against, 2nd best in West)
- Strong recent momentum (4-1 in last 5 games, WWLWW)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Milwaukee Bucks | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder roll into Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum looking to build on their impressive 54-12 record, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fresh off a stellar 34-point performance against the Celtics.
While the Bucks haven't quite hit their usual dominant stride this season, sitting at 37-28, they're still a force to be reckoned with at home, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo coming off a solid 24-point, 12-rebound showing against the Lakers.
The Thunder's lockdown defense has been their secret weapon this year - they're holding opponents to a measly 107.2 points per game, second-best in the league, while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per contest.
Milwaukee's offense remains potent, hitting 48.2% from the field (fifth in the NBA), but they'll need to clean up their ball handling against OKC's aggressive defense.
The matchup between Gilgeous-Alexander and the Bucks' perimeter defenders should be fascinating - SGA's been carving up defenses all season with his crafty drives and mid-range game.
Keep an eye on the battle of the boards - both teams average around 44 rebounds per game, and second-chance points could make the difference in what promises to be a tight contest.
This clash of styles - OKC's suffocating defense against Milwaukee's efficient offense - should make for some compelling basketball at the Fiserv Forum.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Milwaukee Bucks
50%
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
Feb 4, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 96
Milwaukee Bucks
Dec 18, 2024
Milwaukee Bucks
97 : 81
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 13, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 107
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 24, 2024
Milwaukee Bucks
118 : 93
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 18, 2023
Oklahoma City Thunder
124 : 101
Milwaukee Bucks
Nov 10, 2022
Oklahoma City Thunder
132 : 136
Milwaukee Bucks
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