The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Philadelphia Flyers to Amalie Arena on Monday night in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams coming off a 3-3 deadlock in their previous meeting.
Tampa's red-hot power play unit, converting at an impressive 26% clip this season, faces off against a Flyers penalty kill that's shown considerable vulnerability, while the goaltending duel between the Lightning's stalwart Andrei Vasilevskiy and Philadelphia's Samuel Ersson could prove decisive.
The surging Lightning (37-23-5) look to maintain their dominance on home ice against a Flyers squad (28-31-8) that's managed to keep recent contests surprisingly close despite their underwhelming record.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 51% chance of defeating the Flyers.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
51%
49%
Philadelphia Flyers
Tampa Bay Lightning: 51% win probability
- Elite offensive output (234 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong goal differential (+55, 5th best in conference)
- Solid overall record (38 wins in 66 games, 81 points)
Philadelphia Flyers: 49% win probability
- Poor defensive record (232 goals against, 3rd worst in conference)
- Negative momentum (Recent form: LWLLL)
- Road game struggles (28 wins in 68 games overall, indicating poor away performance)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Philadelphia Flyers | |
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| Moneyline |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning are gearing up to host the Philadelphia Flyers at Amalie Arena in what's shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting fortunes.
Tampa's been lighting up the scoreboard lately, with their power play clicking at an impressive 26% success rate - they've already netted 48 goals with the man advantage this season.
The Flyers, who managed a 3-3 tie in their last meeting with the Lightning, have been struggling to find their offensive groove, though they've shown flashes of potential with 187 goals this campaign.
Keep your eyes on Lightning's netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's been a wall between the pipes with a career .917 save percentage - he's the kind of goalie who can steal games single-handedly.
On the Flyers' end, Samuel Ersson's got his work cut out for him - he's been decent with a .510 quality start percentage, but he'll need to be at his absolute best to handle Tampa's high-powered offense.
These teams' last encounter ended in a deadlock, but don't expect lightning to strike twice - Tampa's home-ice advantage at Amalie Arena could be the difference-maker.
The Lightning's balanced attack of even-strength scoring (179 goals) combined with their lethal power play makes them a tough nut to crack, especially on home ice.
With both teams coming off that recent tie game, there's no shortage of familiarity between these clubs, and you can bet neither side has forgotten how that last battle played out.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Philadelphia Flyers
50%
Mar 13, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers
4 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nov 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 2
Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 10, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
7 : 0
Philadelphia Flyers
Feb 28, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers
6 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 24, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers
3 : 6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 8, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 2
Philadelphia Flyers
