The Los Angeles Lakers (42-25) welcome the Denver Nuggets (44-25) to Crypto.com Arena in what shapes up to be a pivotal matchup between two Western Conference powerhouses fighting for playoff positioning.
While the Nuggets bring the NBA's third-ranked offense averaging 121.1 points per game, they'll face a stern test against a Lakers defense that's held opponents to just 111.4 points per contest - though Denver did manage to put up 131 in their narrow victory over LA just five days ago.
The home team Lakers will look to counter Denver's high-octane attack through the red-hot duo of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, who've stepped up admirably in LeBron James' absence, while the visiting Nuggets hope to have both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray back in the lineup after their recent injury spells.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Lakers a 62.5% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Pre-game probabilities
Los Angeles Lakers
Moneyline
Win %
62.5%
37.5%
Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers: 62.5% win probability
- Superior defensive efficiency (7464 points against in 67 games vs Nuggets' 8053 in 69 games)
- Better win percentage (62.7% vs 63.8% with fewer games played)
- Strong home court momentum (Recent form shows WWLLL with 2 straight home wins)
Denver Nuggets: 37.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (WLWLW showing vulnerability on the road)
- Higher points allowed (8053 points against, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency)
- Road game disadvantage (44-25 record with more games played than Lakers' 42-25)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Los Angeles Lakers | Denver Nuggets | |
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets preview
The Western Conference showdown at Crypto.com Arena pits two red-hot teams against each other, with the Nuggets and Lakers separated by just one game in the standings.
Denver's been a real Jekyll and Hyde lately - they somehow dropped one to the Wizards before pulling off a stunning upset over Golden State without Jokic and Murray in the lineup.
The Lakers have found their groove, riding the hot hands of Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic, with Reaves dropping 30 points in their last win against the Spurs.
These teams just faced off five days ago in a shootout that saw Denver escape with a 131-126 win, despite a heroic 37-point performance from Reaves.
The expected return of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray should boost Denver's already potent offense, which ranks third in the league at 121.1 points per game.
LA's defense will have their hands full, but they've been solid at home and their ninth-ranked defensive field goal percentage could be key.
With LeBron James still sidelined with a leg injury, the Lakers will need Doncic to improve on his recent 5-for-20 shooting night if they want to even the season series.
This matchup features two of the league's most dynamic offenses, setting up what should be another high-scoring thriller at Crypto.com Arena.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets form
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets head to head
Los Angeles Lakers
33%
Denver Nuggets
67%
Mar 15, 2025
Denver Nuggets
131 : 126
Los Angeles Lakers
Feb 23, 2025
Denver Nuggets
100 : 123
Los Angeles Lakers
Nov 24, 2024
Los Angeles Lakers
102 : 127
Denver Nuggets
Apr 30, 2024
Denver Nuggets
108 : 106
Los Angeles Lakers
Apr 28, 2024
Los Angeles Lakers
119 : 108
Denver Nuggets
Apr 26, 2024
Los Angeles Lakers
105 : 112
Denver Nuggets
