The surging Toronto Maple Leafs bring their high-powered offense (215 goals this season) to Madison Square Garden for a compelling matchup against a Rangers squad desperate to improve their playoff positioning.
Both teams' fortunes may hinge on the goaltending battle between Toronto's Joseph Woll (.909 save percentage) and New York's veteran Igor Shesterkin, who's been a wall between the pipes with 164 quality starts in his career.
The New York Rangers (33-30-6) look to defend home ice against the Toronto Maple Leafs (40-24-3) in what promises to be an electric Thursday night clash at the Garden.
New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 58.5% chance of defeating the Rangers.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 58.5% win probability
- Superior offensive output (218 goals scored vs Rangers' 205)
- Better overall record (41 wins vs Rangers' 33)
- Stronger goal differential (+18 compared to Rangers' -1)
New York Rangers: 41.5% win probability
- Lower position in standings (9th vs Leafs' 3rd in conference)
- Recent inconsistent form (LLWWL in last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (206 goals against compared to Leafs' 184)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the home team New York Rangers, set to face off on Thursday, March 20.
New York Rangers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | -120 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | +105 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The red-hot Maple Leafs roll into Madison Square Garden fresh off a dominant 6-2 victory over the Flames, showcasing their lethal power play that's clicking at an impressive 25% this season.
Toronto's offensive firepower has been turning heads, with 215 goals already in the bank, though they'll face a tough test in Rangers' netminder Igor Shesterkin, who's been rock-solid with a .918 career save percentage.
The Rangers, despite dropping a tight 2-1 decision to Calgary in their last outing, have been stingy on the penalty kill, successfully defending 82% of their opponents' power play opportunities.
Keep your eyes on Joseph Woll between the pipes for Toronto - the young goalie's been making waves with a solid .909 save percentage and has racked up 38 quality starts in his career.
The Garden's been a fortress for the Blueshirts this season, but they'll need to generate more offense than their recent 13-shot performance if they want to keep pace with Toronto's high-octane attack.
While both teams can light up the scoreboard, this matchup might come down to special teams - the Leafs have been deadly with the man advantage, converting 47 of their 186 power play chances this year.
The contrast in styles should make for a fascinating chess match: Toronto's run-and-gun offense against New York's more methodical, defensively sound approach.
With both squads fighting for playoff positioning, expect this Original Six clash to deliver the kind of intensity that's made this rivalry a must-watch affair for decades.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 3rd in Eastern Conference with 85 points while Rangers trail in 9th with 72 points - a 13-point gap between the teams
- 2Maple Leafs boast a +18 goal difference (218 GF, 200 GA) compared to Rangers' -1 (205 GF, 206 GA)
- 3Toronto shows stronger recent form (WWLLW) versus Rangers' downward trend (LLWWL)
- 4Rangers have played 69 games to Toronto's 68, giving Leafs a game in hand while maintaining better position
New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form


New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
New York Rangers
33%
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
Mar 1, 2025
New York Rangers
2 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 19, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
1 : 4
New York Rangers
Mar 3, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 3
New York Rangers
Dec 20, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 5
New York Rangers
Dec 13, 2023
New York Rangers
3 : 7
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 13, 2023
New York Rangers
2 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs