The surging Houston Rockets bring their eight-game winning streak to Miami's Kaseya Center, where they'll face a Heat squad desperate to snap out of a brutal nine-game skid.
While Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have powered Houston's climb to second place in the Western Conference with their dynamic offense, Miami's Bam Adebayo has been a lone bright spot during the Heat's recent struggles, coming off a 30-point performance in their heartbreaking loss to Detroit.
The Heat have historically dominated this matchup with nine straight wins over the Rockets, but tonight's clash between the scorching-hot visitors and the ice-cold home team feels like it could mark a turning point in the rivalry.
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 63.33% chance of defeating the Heat.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
63.33%
36.67%
Miami Heat
Houston Rockets: 63.33% win probability
- Exceptional recent momentum (Perfect 5-0 in last five games - WWWWW)
- Strong offensive output (7960 points scored in 70 games, averaging 113.7 per game)
- Solid position in standings (2nd in Western Conference with 45-25 record)
Miami Heat: 36.67% win probability
- Poor recent form (0-5 in last five games - LLLLL)
- Struggling offense (7531 points in 69 games, bottom 5 in league scoring)
- Negative win-loss record (29-40, sitting 10th in Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | |
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Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets preview
The red-hot Houston Rockets roll into South Beach riding an impressive eight-game winning streak, while the struggling Miami Heat look to snap out of their worst slump of the season.
Jalen Green's explosive scoring has been key to Houston's surge, with the young guard dropping 26 points in their recent win over Orlando, while Alperen Sengun continues to stuff the stat sheet with his versatile play in the paint.
Miami's recent skid has been particularly painful at home, where they've failed to close out tight games - including a heartbreaking last-second loss to Detroit where Bam Adebayo's monster 30-point performance wasn't enough to secure the win.
The Heat have historically dominated this matchup with nine straight wins over Houston, but they're barely hanging onto the final play-in spot in the East while the Rockets have surged to second in the Western Conference.
Keep an eye on the paint battle between Sengun and Adebayo, two of the league's most skilled big men who can both score, rebound, and create for others.
The Rockets' league-leading rebounding (48.7 per game) could prove decisive against a Heat team that's struggled on the boards, ranking 23rd in the NBA.
Miami's offense has hit a rough patch, averaging just 102.2 points during their losing streak - a far cry from their season average - while Houston's defense remains one of the stingiest in the league.
With Andrew Wiggins questionable for Miami and Amen Thompson likely returning for Houston, the momentum clearly favors the visitors in what should be a fascinating clash of contrasting styles.
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets form
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets head to head
Miami Heat
83%
Houston Rockets
17%
Dec 30, 2024
Houston Rockets
100 : 104
Miami Heat
Apr 6, 2024
Houston Rockets
104 : 119
Miami Heat
Jan 9, 2024
Miami Heat
120 : 113
Houston Rockets
Oct 21, 2023
Houston Rockets
110 : 104
Miami Heat
Feb 11, 2023
Miami Heat
97 : 95
Houston Rockets
Dec 16, 2022
Houston Rockets
108 : 111
Miami Heat
