The Dallas Mavericks find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they welcome the Detroit Pistons to American Airlines Center, with the once-mighty Mavs now fighting for their playoff lives after losing superstar Luka Doncic at the trade deadline and suffering season-ending injuries to both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.
While Dallas has dropped nine of their last ten games and sits precariously in the final play-in spot, the resurgent Pistons have been one of this season's surprise stories under JB Bickerstaff, riding Cade Cunningham's stellar play (including his recent 25-point triple-double against Miami) to what looks like their first playoff berth since last year's 14-win disaster.
The contrast couldn't be starker as the 39-31 Pistons, winners of six of their last ten and boasting the NBA's ninth-ranked defense, face off against the depleted 33-37 Mavericks who've struggled mightily to find their identity since their midseason roster overhaul.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit Pistons matchup, our predictive model gives the Pistons a 55% chance of defeating the Mavs.
Pre-game probabilities
Detroit Pistons
Moneyline
Win %
55%
45%
Dallas Mavericks
Detroit Pistons: 55% win probability
- Better recent form (WWLLW compared to Mavs' LLLLW)
- Superior scoring efficiency (8052 points in 70 games vs Mavs' 8045 in 70)
- Stronger defensive record (7890 points against vs Mavs' 8079)
Dallas Mavericks: 45% win probability
- Poor recent form (Lost 4 of last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (8079 points against, ranking bottom half in West)
- Negative point differential (-34 on the season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Dallas Mavericks | Detroit Pistons | |
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons preview
What a difference a year makes - the Pistons and Mavericks have completely flipped their fortunes heading into Friday's clash at American Airlines Center.
Detroit's resurgence under JB Bickerstaff has been nothing short of remarkable, with Cade Cunningham leading the charge fresh off a spectacular triple-double against Miami that included a game-winning bank shot three.
The Mavs, meanwhile, are barely recognizable from their Finals appearance last season - the departures of Luka Doncic and injuries to both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis have left them scrambling just to stay in the play-in conversation.
P.J. Washington Jr. has stepped up admirably for Dallas, dropping 26 in their recent loss to Indiana, but the team's defensive woes continue to be their Achilles' heel.
The Pistons' road warrior mentality (21-15 away from home) could spell trouble for a depleted Mavs squad that's dropped nine of their last ten games.
Detroit's ninth-ranked defense should have a field day against a Dallas team that's struggling to find offensive rhythm without their stars.
Keep an eye on Cunningham, who's been on an absolute tear with his ninth triple-double of the season, as he looks to exploit the Mavs' vulnerable interior defense.
With Dallas giving up 45 points in the fourth quarter to Indiana last game, this matchup feels like it could get away from them quickly if they can't patch up their defensive holes.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons form
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons head to head
Dallas Mavericks
67%
Detroit Pistons
33%
Feb 1, 2025
Detroit Pistons
117 : 102
Dallas Mavericks
Apr 13, 2024
Dallas Mavericks
89 : 107
Detroit Pistons
Mar 10, 2024
Detroit Pistons
124 : 142
Dallas Mavericks
Oct 21, 2023
Dallas Mavericks
114 : 104
Detroit Pistons
Jan 31, 2023
Dallas Mavericks
111 : 105
Detroit Pistons
Dec 2, 2022
Detroit Pistons
131 : 125
Dallas Mavericks
