The Toyota Center is set for a pivotal Western Conference clash as the surging Houston Rockets, riding a nine-game winning streak, welcome a Denver Nuggets squad that's desperately trying to avoid their third straight loss.
With Nikola Jokic's status still uncertain and the Rockets boasting the NBA's third-best defensive rating, this rematch of January's 20-point Houston victory could expose Denver's recent defensive woes that have seen them allow 120+ points in four of their last five games.
The second-place Rockets (46-25) look to extend their dominance over the fourth-place Nuggets (44-27) in what promises to be a physical battle between the league's best offensive rebounding team and the defending champions.
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 52.5% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets: 52.5% win probability
- Outstanding recent momentum (Perfect WWWWW in last 5 games)
- Superior defensive efficiency (7737 goals against vs Nuggets' 8301)
- Higher win percentage (46-25 record vs Nuggets' 44-27)
Denver Nuggets: 47.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LLWLW in last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (8301 goals against, ranking bottom half in conference)
- Road game disadvantage (Playing away vs Rockets' 2nd place home court)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets preview
The red-hot Houston Rockets are looking to extend their impressive nine-game winning streak as they host the Denver Nuggets in what's shaping up to be a crucial Western Conference showdown at the Toyota Center.
Houston's defense has been nothing short of spectacular this season - they're holding teams to the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in the league, while their offensive rebounding has been off the charts.
The defending champion Nuggets have hit a rough patch lately, dropping their last two games and potentially missing their cornerstone player Nikola Jokic, who's been sidelined for several games.
These teams' last meeting in January saw the Rockets dominate with a 20-point road victory, but Denver's Aaron Gordon has been stepping up big time - he dropped 26 points on 64% shooting in their recent outing.
Jalen Green's been on fire for the Rockets, coming off a 26-point performance against Orlando, and he'll be looking to keep that momentum going against Denver's struggling perimeter defense.
The Nuggets' offense, usually a well-oiled machine ranking fourth in efficiency, will need to find answers against Houston's suffocating defense that's been giving opponents fits all season.
With both teams fighting for playoff positioning - Houston sitting pretty in second while Denver's slipped to fourth - this matchup has all the makings of a playoff-intensity battle.
Keep an eye on the battle of the boards, where Houston's league-leading offensive rebounding could be the x-factor against Denver's middle-of-the-pack defensive rebounding.
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets form
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets head to head
Houston Rockets
60%
Denver Nuggets
40%
Mar 23, 2025
Houston Rockets
0 : 0
Denver Nuggets
Jan 16, 2025
Denver Nuggets
108 : 128
Houston Rockets
Dec 9, 2023
Denver Nuggets
106 : 114
Houston Rockets
Nov 30, 2023
Denver Nuggets
134 : 124
Houston Rockets
Nov 25, 2023
Houston Rockets
105 : 86
Denver Nuggets
Nov 13, 2023
Houston Rockets
107 : 104
Denver Nuggets
