The surging New York Knicks (44-26) welcome a struggling Dallas Mavericks (34-37) squad to Madison Square Garden in what promises to be an intriguing clash of contrasting fortunes.
While the Knicks have found their rhythm winning four of their last seven and dominating at home, Dallas enters on the heels of back-to-back wins that barely mask their recent nine losses in twelve games.
The matchup features some compelling storylines with Karl-Anthony Towns coming off a monster 31-point performance for the home team, while the visiting Mavericks will need another strong showing from Spencer Dinwiddie to overcome their injury woes.
New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks matchup, our predictive model gives the Knicks a 52.5% chance of defeating the Mavs.
Pre-game probabilities
New York Knicks
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Dallas Mavericks
New York Knicks: 52.5% win probability
- Higher conference position (3rd in East vs Mavs' 10th in West)
- Better win percentage (44-26 record translates to 62.9% wins)
- Superior defensive efficiency (7854 points against in 70 games vs Mavs' 8297 in 72 games)
Dallas Mavericks: 47.5% win probability
- Poor recent form (WWLLL shows inconsistency in last 5 games)
- Negative point differential (-9 points per game over last 10 matches)
- Road game struggles (35-37 overall record indicates road performance issues)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| New York Knicks | Dallas Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks preview
The struggling Mavericks roll into Madison Square Garden looking to build on their surprising back-to-back wins, despite missing key players like Kyrie Irving and Daniel Gafford.
Spencer Dinwiddie's hot hand could be crucial for Dallas - he's coming off a stellar 31-point performance on 75% shooting against Detroit, which they'll need to replicate against a stingy Knicks defense.
The Knicks have been taking care of business at home, particularly against teams with losing records, and Karl-Anthony Towns is in beast mode after dropping 31 points and 11 boards in their last outing.
While Dallas has shown flashes of brilliance in the fourth quarter (ranking 3rd in Q4 scoring), they've been getting killed on the boards - a weakness the Knicks will surely look to exploit.
The Garden's been rocking lately with the Knicks winning four of their last seven, though they'll need to tighten up their perimeter defense that's allowing opponents to shoot a concerning 37.4% from deep.
This matchup has some weird Tuesday magic going for Dallas - they've somehow won their last eight Tuesday games against New York, but playing on the second night of a back-to-back at MSG is no joke.
Keep an eye on Mikal Bridges, who's been quietly efficient for the Knicks with 27 points and solid all-around play in their last win against Washington.
New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks form
New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks head to head
New York Knicks
0%
Dallas Mavericks
100%
Mar 25, 2025
New York Knicks
0 : 0
Dallas Mavericks
Nov 28, 2024
Dallas Mavericks
129 : 114
New York Knicks
Feb 9, 2024
New York Knicks
108 : 122
Dallas Mavericks
Jan 12, 2024
Dallas Mavericks
128 : 124
New York Knicks
Dec 28, 2022
Dallas Mavericks
126 : 121
New York Knicks
Dec 3, 2022
New York Knicks
100 : 121
Dallas Mavericks
