Fresh off their first loss in ten games, the Houston Rockets (46-26) face a red-hot Atlanta Hawks team that's won seven of their last nine matchups in what promises to be an explosive offensive showdown at the Toyota Center.
The Hawks' dynamic offense, led by Trae Young's 24.1 points and 11.4 assists per game, will test Houston's stingy defense, while Alperen Sengun's recent triple-double highlights the Rockets' newfound offensive firepower.
The home team Rockets aim to maintain their slim lead over Denver in the Western Conference standings, while the away team Hawks look to strengthen their grip on the Eastern Conference's seventh seed.
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks matchup, our predictive model gives the Hawks a 67.5% chance of defeating the Rockets.
Pre-game probabilities
Atlanta Hawks
Moneyline
Win %
67.5%
32.5%
Houston Rockets
Atlanta Hawks: 67.5% win probability
- Superior offensive output (8,351 points scored vs Rockets' 8,173)
- Better scoring efficiency (117.6 points per game vs Rockets' 113.5)
- Stronger recent momentum (WWWLL vs Rockets' LWWWW)
Houston Rockets: 32.5% win probability
- Lower scoring average (113.5 points per game ranks 18th in league)
- Defensive inconsistency (7,853 points allowed in 72 games)
- Home court disadvantage (46-26 overall record suggests road team advantage)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Houston Rockets | Atlanta Hawks | |
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| Moneyline |
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Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks preview
The Toyota Center is set for a fascinating cross-conference clash as the red-hot Rockets look to bounce back from their streak-snapping loss to Denver, while the Hawks aim to strengthen their grip on the Eastern Conference's seventh spot.
Trae Young's been lighting it up for Atlanta, dropping 28 points and 12 dimes in their last win, while the Hawks' offense has been on fire this March, putting up a whopping 123 points per game.
Houston's Alperen Sengun's recent triple-double (17-14-10) shows just how dangerous the big man's become, but the Rockets' league-worst free-throw shooting could come back to bite them in what's shaping up to be a close one.
The Hawks' defense has looked shaky lately - ranking 21st in defensive rating over their last 13 games - but their league-second-best steal rate might give Houston's offense some headaches.
These teams tend to produce nail-biters when they meet, with Atlanta covering in five of their last six head-to-heads, though Houston's recent nine-game tear proves they're no pushovers at home.
Keep an eye on Jalen Green, who's coming off a 30-point performance against Denver, while the Hawks will need to navigate without the injured Clint Capela and season-ending loss of Jalen Johnson.
The contrast in styles should make for compelling basketball - Houston's league-leading rebounding against Atlanta's high-octane offense and push-the-pace mentality.
With both teams ranking in the top eight in offensive rating, we're likely in for a high-scoring showdown at the Toyota Center.
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks form
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks head to head
Houston Rockets
17%
Atlanta Hawks
83%
Jan 29, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
96 : 100
Houston Rockets
Feb 11, 2024
Atlanta Hawks
122 : 113
Houston Rockets
Dec 21, 2023
Houston Rockets
127 : 134
Atlanta Hawks
Nov 26, 2022
Houston Rockets
128 : 122
Atlanta Hawks
Oct 19, 2022
Atlanta Hawks
117 : 107
Houston Rockets
Apr 10, 2022
Houston Rockets
114 : 130
Atlanta Hawks
