The Buffalo Sabres welcome the Ottawa Senators to KeyBank Center on Tuesday night in what feels like a tale of two very different seasons.
While the Senators have been surging with seven wins in their last ten games to claim the top wild card spot, the Sabres' defensive woes continue to haunt them, having allowed a concerning 12 goals in their last three outings despite Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka's offensive firepower.
The contrast between Ottawa's stingy 2.87 goals-against average and Buffalo's leaky defense sets up an intriguing matchup as the home team looks to salvage pride against the away team's playoff push.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Sens a 64.33% chance of defeating the Sabres.
Pre-game probabilities
Ottawa Senators
Moneyline
Win %
64.33%
35.67%
Buffalo Sabres
Ottawa Senators: 64.33% win probability
- Superior goal production (202 goals scored vs Sabres' 217)
- Better defensive record (200 goals against vs Sabres' 244)
- Higher league position (7th vs 16th in Eastern Conference)
Buffalo Sabres: 35.67% win probability
- Poor defensive record (244 goals against, 3rd worst in Eastern Conference)
- Inconsistent home performance (28 wins in 69 games played)
- Lower points total (62 points vs Senators' 79 points in similar games played)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Buffalo Sabres | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators preview
The struggling Buffalo Sabres host the surging Ottawa Senators at KeyBank Center in what's shaping up to be a tale of two very different seasons.
Ottawa's defensive prowess has been their secret weapon, with the dynamic duo of Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson anchoring a blue line that's kept opponents to under three goals per game.
While the Sabres' offense has shown flashes of brilliance behind Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka's combined firepower, their leaky defense has been their Achilles' heel, giving up a whopping 12 goals in their last three outings.
The goaltending battle couldn't be more stark - Ottawa's Linus Ullmark has been rock-solid with a .908 save percentage, while Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has struggled to find his rhythm, posting a concerning -17.9 goals saved above average.
Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk have been Ottawa's offensive catalysts, though they'll need more support from their secondary scorers to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Buffalo's defensive pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power has contributed nicely on offense with 90 combined points, but they'll need to tighten up their own end if they want to play spoiler.
The Senators' playoff push adds extra spice to this matchup, as they look to maintain their grip on the Eastern Conference's top wild card spot.
Keep an eye on the special teams battle - Ottawa's power play has been clicking at nearly 24%, while Buffalo's penalty kill has been a liability at 76.9%.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators form
Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Buffalo Sabres
67%
Ottawa Senators
33%
Jan 10, 2025
Ottawa Senators
0 : 4
Buffalo Sabres
Nov 6, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
5 : 1
Ottawa Senators
Sep 26, 2024
Ottawa Senators
2 : 3
Buffalo Sabres
Mar 27, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
2 : 6
Ottawa Senators
Jan 12, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
5 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Dec 31, 2023
Ottawa Senators
5 : 1
Buffalo Sabres
