The Toronto Maple Leafs head into SAP Center with revenge on their minds after a shocking shootout loss to the Sharks earlier this month, bringing their high-powered offense that just put up seven goals against Philadelphia.
While San Jose sits at the bottom of the league standings, they've shown flashes of competence with recent wins over Boston and Chicago, plus that unexpected victory in Toronto that's still fresh in the Leafs' memory.
The San Jose Sharks host the Toronto Maple Leafs in what could be either a statement game for the home team or a harsh reality check against one of the league's most potent attacks.
San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Jose Sharks vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 60% chance of defeating the Sharks.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
60%
40%
San Jose Sharks
Toronto Maple Leafs: 60% win probability
- Potent offense (231 goals scored, 3rd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong position in standings (3rd place, 89 points in 71 games)
- Momentum advantage (Recent form: WLWWW vs Sharks' WLLWL)
San Jose Sharks: 40% win probability
- League-worst position (16th in Western Conference, 47 points)
- Poor goal differential (-77, allowing 259 goals while scoring just 182)
- Inconsistent performance (19 wins in 70 games played)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| San Jose Sharks | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs head to SAP Center riding high after their 7-2 demolition of the Flyers, with the dynamic duo of John Tavares and William Nylander each putting up four-point performances.
While the Sharks might be at the bottom of the league standings, they've shown surprising bite lately, including a stunning shootout victory over these same Leafs earlier this month and an impressive win against the Bruins in their last outing.
Toronto's offense has been on fire, lighting the lamp at least four times in four of their last five games, though their defense has been a bit leaky - giving up multiple goals in 16 of their last 17 matches.
Joseph Woll gets the start between the pipes for the Leafs, looking to improve on his solid 24-13-0 record, while the Sharks counter with Alexandar Georgiev, who's coming off a confidence-boosting performance against Boston.
The absence of veteran Max Pacioretty from Toronto's lineup could open up opportunities for San Jose's young guns like William Eklund, who's been finding his groove lately.
The Leafs' previous visit to San Jose featured an uncharacteristic 22 giveaways - something coach Keefe has surely addressed in practice this week.
With Toronto battling Florida for the Atlantic Division's top spot, they can't afford another slip-up against the underdog Sharks, who've proven they can punch above their weight class when the stars align.
San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
San Jose Sharks
33%
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
Mar 4, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 3
San Jose Sharks
Jan 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
7 : 1
San Jose Sharks
Jan 7, 2024
San Jose Sharks
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 1, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 1
San Jose Sharks
Oct 28, 2022
San Jose Sharks
4 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 27, 2021
San Jose Sharks
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
