Sunday's matchup at Capital One Arena pits a red-hot Washington Capitals squad riding an 8-2 streak against a Buffalo Sabres team that's shown offensive spark but struggled defensively all season.
While Alex Ovechkin's 36 goals and Washington's league-leading offense (3.6 goals per game) give them a clear edge, Buffalo's dynamic duo of Tage Thompson (36G, 27A) and Alex Tuch (29G, 25A) could turn this into a goal-fest if James Reimer falters in net.
The defensive gap might prove too much to overcome as the disciplined Capitals, allowing just 2.54 goals against per game, look to extend their dominance against a Sabres team that's shipped 3.5 goals per contest when the home team hosts the away team on Sunday afternoon.
Washington Capitals vs. Buffalo Sabres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 82.5% chance of defeating the Sabres.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
82.5%
17.5%
Buffalo Sabres
Washington Capitals: 82.5% win probability
- League-leading record (47-16-0, 103 points)
- Dominant goal differential (+73, most in Eastern Conference)
- Superior offensive production (261 goals scored, ranking near the top of the league)
Buffalo Sabres: 17.5% win probability
- Poor road performance (16th in Eastern Conference standings)
- Significant defensive struggles (256 goals against, among worst in conference)
- Inconsistent recent form (LWWWL in last five games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Washington Capitals | Buffalo Sabres | |
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| Moneyline |
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Washington Capitals vs. Buffalo Sabres preview
The scorching hot Capitals welcome the Sabres to Capital One Arena this Sunday in what looks like a classic mismatch between cup contenders and playoff outsiders.
Washington's well-oiled machine - winners of 8 of their last 10 - brings the NHL's most lethal offense (3.6 goals per game) against a Buffalo squad that's surrendered a troubling 3.5 goals nightly.
While Buffalo's dynamic duo of Tage Thompson (36 goals) and Alex Tuch (29 goals) can light the lamp with the best of them, their leaky defense and 24th-ranked penalty kill could spell disaster against Ovechkin and company.
Speaking of the Great Eight, Ovi's 36 goals lead a balanced Capitals attack featuring Dylan Strome's 68 points and Tom Wilson's 31 goals - a nightmare trio for opposing defenders to handle.
The goaltending battle tilts heavily Washington's way with Logan Thompson (31-10-2, 2.32 GAA) expected to face Buffalo's James Reimer, who's struggled behind the Sabres' porous blue line.
Beyond the stats, what's fascinating is how Washington has evolved into a defensive juggernaut - ranking 4th in goals-against - while maintaining their trademark offensive firepower.
Buffalo's recent 7-3 demolition of Pittsburgh shows they can play spoiler when firing on all cylinders, but they're facing a Capitals squad that's not just winning games - they're peaking at exactly the right time.
If the Sabres have any chance Sunday, they'll need their 11th-ranked offense to solve Washington's airtight penalty kill - otherwise, this has all the makings of another statement win for a Capitals team with serious Stanley Cup ambitions.
Washington Capitals vs. Buffalo Sabres form
Washington Capitals vs. Buffalo Sabres head to head
Washington Capitals
33%
Buffalo Sabres
67%
Jan 7, 2025
Buffalo Sabres
4 : 3
Washington Capitals
Dec 15, 2024
Washington Capitals
4 : 2
Buffalo Sabres
Apr 11, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
4 : 2
Washington Capitals
Apr 2, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
6 : 2
Washington Capitals
Nov 23, 2023
Washington Capitals
4 : 3
Buffalo Sabres
Sep 24, 2023
Washington Capitals
3 : 4
Buffalo Sabres
