The red-hot Houston Rockets (48-26) roll into Phoenix riding an impressive streak of 11 wins in their last 12 games, led by Alperen Sengun's dominant inside presence and a defense that ranks third in adjusted efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Suns (35-39) find themselves in desperate need of a win to keep their play-in tournament hopes alive, currently sitting 11th in the Western Conference and potentially missing Bradley Beal for a seventh straight game.
Sunday's Western Conference showdown at Footprint Center will be the ultimate test of whether Phoenix's league-leading three-point shooting (38.4%) can overcome Houston's stifling perimeter defense as the home team Suns look to avoid being swept by the away team Rockets for the first time since 2018-19.
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 52% chance of defeating the Suns.
Pre-game probabilities
Phoenix Suns
Moneyline
Win %
48%
52%
Houston Rockets
Phoenix Suns: 48% win probability
- Lower position in standings (11th place with 35-39 record)
- Defensive struggles (8582 points allowed this season)
- Inconsistent scoring compared to playoff contenders (8462 points scored)
Houston Rockets: 52% win probability
- Second place in Western Conference standings (48-26 record)
- Strong offensive production (8415 points scored)
- Excellent recent form (WWLWW in last five games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Phoenix Suns | Houston Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets preview
The red-hot Rockets roll into Footprint Center riding an impressive streak of 11 wins in their last 12 games, looking to complete a rare season sweep of the struggling Suns on Sunday night.
Phoenix desperately needs this home victory to stay alive in the play-in tournament race, as they've slipped to 11th in the Western Conference—one game behind Dallas for the final spot.
Houston's defensive prowess has been their calling card, allowing just 109.1 points per game (5th in NBA) while shutting down opponents from beyond the arc, whereas the Suns' leaky defense has surrendered a concerning 124.5 points per 100 possessions over their last five games.
Alperen Sengun comes in scorching hot after torching Utah for 33 points and 10 rebounds, while Phoenix will continue to miss Bradley Beal's 17.3 points per game as he sits with a hamstring injury.
Kevin Durant remains Phoenix's offensive centerpiece, but Devin Booker's recent struggles (just 10 points against Minnesota) need to turn around if the Suns hope to avoid their third straight loss.
The matchup presents a fascinating contrast—Houston's stifling defense against Phoenix's sharpshooting (the Suns are tied for the league's best 3-point percentage at 38.4%).
For the Suns, this game represents their last chance to build momentum before a brutal three-game road trip against Milwaukee, Boston, and New York.
If Phoenix has any hope of sneaking into the play-in tournament, they'll need their home court advantage to help them against this surging Rockets squad that's firmly entrenched as the West's second seed.
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets form
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets head to head
Phoenix Suns
33%
Houston Rockets
67%
Mar 13, 2025
Houston Rockets
111 : 104
Phoenix Suns
Feb 13, 2025
Houston Rockets
119 : 111
Phoenix Suns
Mar 3, 2024
Phoenix Suns
109 : 118
Houston Rockets
Mar 1, 2024
Phoenix Suns
110 : 105
Houston Rockets
Feb 24, 2024
Houston Rockets
114 : 110
Phoenix Suns
Dec 28, 2023
Houston Rockets
113 : 129
Phoenix Suns
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