The red-hot Buffalo Sabres, winners of five of their last six including back-to-back victories, face a tough test against a Tampa Bay Lightning squad fighting for Atlantic Division supremacy on Saturday night at KeyBank Center.
While Buffalo's playoff hopes hang by a thread despite their recent offensive explosion (24 goals in their last four contests), the Lightning enter just three points behind Toronto for the division lead and will be hungry to bounce back from Thursday's disappointing 2-1 loss to Ottawa.
All eyes will be on the potential goaltending duel between Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy and Buffalo's James Reimer as the Sabres look to play spoiler against a Lightning team that holds a 5-2-3 edge in their last ten meetings when the Buffalo Sabres host the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 55.33% chance of defeating the Sabres.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
55.33%
44.67%
Buffalo Sabres
Tampa Bay Lightning: 55.33% win probability
- Superior offensive power (269 goals for, ranking among the top in the Eastern Conference)
- Excellent defensive record (198 goals against, much better than Buffalo's 263)
- Strong recent form (LWWWW compared to Buffalo's WWLWW, showing consistency when it matters most)
Buffalo Sabres: 44.67% win probability
- Poor defensive record (263 goals against, one of the highest in the Eastern Conference)
- Lower points total (70 points compared to Tampa's 93 after similar games played)
- Lower standing position (15th in Eastern Conference versus Tampa's 4th place position, showing a significant gap in overall team quality)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Buffalo Sabres | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Best NHL sportsbook promos
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning roll into KeyBank Center Saturday night, looking to bounce back after their surprising 2-1 stumble against Ottawa snapped a four-game winning streak.
Buffalo enters with unexpected momentum, riding a two-game winning streak and having won five of their last six, including an impressive 5-2 road victory over Ottawa where Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson continued their scoring tear.
The Atlantic Division clash features two teams heading in opposite directions - Tampa fighting for playoff positioning just three points behind Toronto for the division lead, while Buffalo's late-season surge likely comes too late to save their playoff hopes.
Lightning's explosive offense (3.56 goals per game, 2nd in the league) meets a suddenly potent Sabres attack that's averaged a whopping 4.2 goals over their last ten games.
Keep an eye on Brandon Hagel, who netted his 34th goal for Tampa in their last outing, going head-to-head with Buffalo's Tuch, who's reached 32 goals this season and seems determined to finish strong.
Between the pipes, it's a goaltending mismatch with Tampa's elite Andrei Vasilevskiy (.907 save percentage) likely facing Buffalo's James Reimer, who did stop 33 shots in their recent win.
The rivalry's recent history favors Tampa (5-2-3 in last 10 meetings), including a wild 6-5 thriller when they last met in March - suggesting another high-scoring affair could be on tap.
While the Lightning remain heavy favorites as they chase home-ice advantage, don't sleep on these Sabres - they've got nothing to lose and seem hellbent on playing spoiler down the stretch.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
Buffalo Sabres
67%
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Mar 7, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 5
Buffalo Sabres
Apr 15, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Buffalo Sabres
Mar 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 3
Buffalo Sabres
Jan 20, 2024
Buffalo Sabres
1 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Oct 17, 2023
Buffalo Sabres
3 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 4, 2023
Buffalo Sabres
5 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
