The red-hot Indiana Pacers bring their high-octane offense to Ball Arena tonight, where they haven't tasted victory since January 2020 against a Denver squad desperate to end their three-game losing streak.
With Nikola Jokić averaging a triple-double and the Pacers missing Pascal Siakam, this clash between Eastern and Western Conference playoff contenders could hinge on Denver's league-leading field goal percentage against Indiana's recent fourth-quarter dominance.
All eyes will be on whether the surging Pacers, winners of nine of their last eleven, can finally break through against a Denver Nuggets home team that appears vulnerable despite owning the head-to-head advantage against tonight's away team.
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Nuggets a 60% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
Denver Nuggets
Moneyline
Win %
60%
40%
Indiana Pacers
Denver Nuggets: 60% win probability
- Home court advantage (47-31 overall record, 4th in Western Conference)
- Offensive firepower (9415 points scored, highest in Western Conference)
- Momentum shift with recent wins (LLLWW recent form showing recovery)
Indiana Pacers: 40% win probability
- Road game disadvantage (46-31 record, typically perform better at home)
- Defensive vulnerability (8864 points allowed, higher than Western Conference leaders)
- Conference strength disparity (4th in Eastern vs. playing 4th in Western Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Denver Nuggets | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The sizzling Pacers bring their red-hot offense to the Mile High City where they'll face a Nuggets squad desperate to snap a three-game skid and secure home-court advantage for the playoffs.
Denver's recent stumbles have dropped them to the fourth seed in the West, but they'll take comfort knowing they've dominated this matchup with nine straight wins against Indiana dating back to January 2020.
The Pacers' offense has been clicking lately, averaging nearly 123 points over their last ten games while winning 11 of their last 14, but they'll be without Pascal Siakam (elbow) which is a massive blow to their frontcourt.
Nikola Jokić has been carrying the Nuggets through their recent struggles, putting up 33 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists in their recent loss to Golden State, and he'll likely need another monster performance if Jamal Murray remains sidelined with his nagging hamstring issue.
Both teams sit fourth in their respective conferences and have already clinched playoff spots, but Denver carries a miserable 3-7 ATS record over their last ten games into this matchup.
The Pacers' high-octane attack (7th in scoring) will test Denver's leaky defense (24th in points allowed), setting up what should be a high-scoring affair at Ball Arena.
Tyrese Haliburton's playmaking and Myles Turner's inside presence give Indiana a fighting chance, but the Pacers' 18-20 road record doesn't inspire confidence against a Nuggets team that's 25-14 at home.
Denver's desperation for a win and Indiana's historical struggles at Ball Arena (having lost 13 of their last 14 visits) should make this a fascinating clash between two playoff-bound teams trying to build momentum for the postseason.
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers form
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Denver Nuggets
100%
Indiana Pacers
0%
Feb 25, 2025
Indiana Pacers
116 : 125
Denver Nuggets
Jul 18, 2024
Denver Nuggets
86 : 71
Indiana Pacers
Jan 24, 2024
Indiana Pacers
109 : 114
Denver Nuggets
Jan 14, 2024
Denver Nuggets
117 : 109
Indiana Pacers
Jan 21, 2023
Denver Nuggets
134 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Nov 10, 2022
Indiana Pacers
119 : 122
Denver Nuggets
