Sunday's showdown between the San Jose Earthquakes and D.C. United pits two teams desperate to shore up their defensive woes, with both sides having conceded in at least five of their last six matches despite showing flashes of offensive prowess.
The history between these clubs has been remarkably tight with their last five meetings producing three draws and a nearly even split of goals (7 for Quakes, 10 for Black-and-Red), suggesting another closely fought battle at PayPal Park.
Key absences could tip the scales with Bruce Arena missing four players including Benjamin Kikanović, while Troy Lesesne's D.C. United travels west without Randall Leal and three others as the injury-depleted away team faces a home team looking to capitalize on their slight statistical advantage.
SJ Earthquakes vs. D.C. United prediction: who will win?
For today's SJ Earthquakes vs D.C. United matchup, our predictive model gives the Earthquakes a 60.4% chance of defeating United.
Pre-game probabilities
SJ Earthquakes
Moneyline
Win %
60.4%
39.6%
D.C. United
SJ Earthquakes: 60.4% win probability
- Home field advantage (Teams typically perform better at home)
- Likely better defensive organization (D.C. United has conceded 11 goals in 6 games)
- Potential for offensive opportunities (D.C. United has a negative goal difference)
D.C. United: 39.6% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLDWD with only 1 win in 6 matches)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (11 goals conceded in 6 matches)
- Low win rate (Only 1 win from 6 games, sitting 12th in the standings)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge.
Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
| SJ Earthquakes | D.C. United | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Best MLS sportsbook promos
SJ Earthquakes vs. D.C. United preview
The struggling Earthquakes host D.C. United at PayPal Park this Sunday in what promises to be an intriguing clash between two defensively vulnerable sides.
San Jose's recent form has been concerning with just one win in their last six matches, and they've leaked goals consistently, conceding in five of their previous six outings.
D.C. United arrives with their own defensive headaches but boasts a sharper attack, having netted 8 times in their last six games with Christian Benteke leading their offensive charge.
The injury bug has bitten both squads hard - Quakes manager Bruce Arena will be without Tsakiris, Kikanović, López and Costa, while United's Troy Lesesne can't call upon Leal, Karamoko, Hopkins or Antley.
History between these teams has been remarkably tight, with their last meeting ending in a goalless stalemate despite United firing 24 shots at goal.
I'm expecting goals this time around given both teams' leaky defenses and United's recent scoring touch.
The home advantage might just tip the scales in San Jose's favor, but don't be shocked if we see a 2-1 scoreline with both teams finding the net.
Keep an eye on Beau Leroux for the Quakes - he bagged their only goal in their recent draw against Seattle and could be the difference-maker on Sunday.
SJ Earthquakes vs. D.C. United form
SJ Earthquakes vs. D.C. United head to head
SJ Earthquakes
33%
D.C. United
67%
Sep 9, 2023
D.C. United
0 : 0
SJ Earthquakes
May 2, 2021
SJ Earthquakes
4 : 1
D.C. United
Jun 2, 2019
D.C. United
1 : 1
SJ Earthquakes
May 20, 2018
SJ Earthquakes
1 : 3
D.C. United
Sep 23, 2017
D.C. United
4 : 0
SJ Earthquakes
Apr 3, 2016
SJ Earthquakes
1 : 1
D.C. United
Share this post
Related
