With Miami fighting to improve their Play-In Tournament position and Philadelphia limping toward the finish line without stars Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, this Eastern Conference clash features teams on drastically different trajectories.
Bam Adebayo's interior presence could prove decisive against a Sixers squad that ranks dead last in rebound percentage (46.5%) and has dropped 26 of their last 29 games, though Tyler Herro's questionable status adds an element of uncertainty to the Heat's offensive gameplan.
All eyes will be on whether the injury-ravaged Sixers can snap their 11-game losing streak or if the defensively-oriented Miami Heat will take care of business at home against their Atlantic Division visitors.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 69% chance of defeating the Sixers.
Pre-game probabilities
Miami Heat
Moneyline
Win %
69%
31%
Philadelphia 76ers
Miami Heat: 69% win probability
- Strong recent form (LLWWW) with momentum from three recent wins (Supporting statistic: Heat have won 3 of their last 5 games)
- Superior defensive efficiency throughout the season (Supporting statistic: Heat have allowed 8576 points compared to Sixers' 9033)
- Better overall record this season (Supporting statistic: 35-43 record vs Philadelphia's 23-55 record)
Philadelphia 76ers: 31% win probability
- Struggling defense allowing easy buckets (Supporting statistic: 76ers have conceded 9033 points this season)
- Poor road performance throughout the season (Supporting statistic: Currently sitting 13th in Eastern Conference with only 23 wins)
- Lack of offensive production (Supporting statistic: 76ers have scored 8549 points, lower than Miami's 8570 despite playing the same number of games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Miami Heat | Philadelphia 76ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers preview
The struggling 76ers limp into Miami on an 11-game losing skid without their star trio of Embiid, Maxey, and George - all shut down for the season as Philly plays out the string of a deeply disappointing campaign.
Miami, clinging to the 10th seed in the East, desperately needs this win to improve their Play-In Tournament positioning, but their injury report is also concerning with Tyler Herro listed as questionable after missing their last game with a thigh issue.
Keep an eye on Quentin Grimes, who's become Philly's default go-to scorer, averaging 22.3 points and dropping 24+ in each of his last three games including a 28-point effort against Minnesota.
Bam Adebayo remains Miami's rock in the paint, coming off a monster 31-point, 12-rebound performance against Milwaukee, and he should feast against a depleted Sixers frontcourt.
The Heat have dominated this season's series, winning all three previous matchups, and Miami's 8th-ranked defense should smother a Philly offense that ranks a dismal 25th in efficiency.
The betting trends heavily favor Miami, though their 3-9-1 ATS record as double-digit favorites raises some eyebrows for those considering laying the heavy chalk.
Expect a slow-paced, grinding affair with the Heat controlling the tempo - especially if Herro can't go - though Philly's young players like Adem Bona (who dropped 28 points on 13-of-15 shooting against Milwaukee) might make things interesting.
This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions - Miami fighting for playoff positioning while Philly can only dream about next season's potential when their stars return to health.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers form
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers head to head
Miami Heat
20%
Philadelphia 76ers
80%
Apr 7, 2025
Miami Heat
0 : 0
Philadelphia 76ers
Mar 29, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers
95 : 118
Miami Heat
Feb 6, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers
101 : 108
Miami Heat
Nov 19, 2024
Miami Heat
106 : 89
Philadelphia 76ers
Apr 17, 2024
Philadelphia 76ers
105 : 104
Miami Heat
Apr 4, 2024
Miami Heat
105 : 109
Philadelphia 76ers
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