With the regular season winding down, Monday's clash at Madison Square Garden features a Lightning team that's already clinched a playoff spot against a Rangers squad fighting for their postseason lives, now sitting four points out of the final wildcard position.
While Tampa boasts the league's second-best offense led by potential MVP Nikita Kucherov (112 points), they've gone cold lately, managing just three goals in their last two losses – something Igor Shesterkin and the Rangers will look to capitalize on as they've won two of their last three.
This goaltending battle between Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin could ultimately determine whether the New York Rangers can keep their playoff hopes alive against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 55% chance of defeating the Rangers.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
55%
45%
New York Rangers
Tampa Bay Lightning: 55% win probability
- Superior goal-scoring ability (271 goals for, ranking 4th in the Eastern Conference)
- Better defensive record (201 goals against compared to Rangers' 230)
- Strong recent form (LLWWW indicates they've won 3 of their last 5 games)
New York Rangers: 45% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (LWWLL indicates they've lost 3 of their last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (230 goals against, 21 more than Tampa Bay)
- Lower position in standings (9th in Eastern Conference vs Tampa's 4th place position)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| New York Rangers | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The Lightning roll into Madison Square Garden tonight with playoff positioning on the line while the Rangers are fighting for their postseason lives, now four points behind Montreal for the final wildcard spot.
Tampa's offensive juggernaut, led by potential MVP Nikita Kucherov and his ridiculous 112 points, has cooled a bit lately with only three goals in their last two losses.
The goaltending matchup features two of the league's elite netminders in Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin, though Shesterkin hasn't quite matched his usual stellar form this season with a 2.86 GAA.
Artemi Panarin remains the Rangers' offensive catalyst with 82 points, but they'll need more from struggling veteran Mika Zibanejad, who's been held pointless in his last two outings.
Lightning's Jake Guentzel comes in hot after posting 16 points last month, giving Tampa another dangerous weapon beyond Kucherov and Point.
These teams have met just once this season with Tampa dominating in a 6-2 victory, but the Rangers have found their scoring touch lately, netting four-plus goals in three of their last four games.
The Garden crowd will be at fever pitch, knowing their team's playoff hopes hang in the balance against a Lightning squad that's dropped four of their last five road contests.
Something's gotta give between Tampa's elite offense (3.5 goals per game) and a Rangers team that simply can't afford another loss at this critical juncture.
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
New York Rangers
50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Dec 29, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 2
New York Rangers
Mar 14, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 3
New York Rangers
Feb 8, 2024
New York Rangers
3 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 31, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 5
New York Rangers
Apr 5, 2023
New York Rangers
6 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 30, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 1
New York Rangers
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