Wednesday's clash at American Airlines Center sees a battle-tested Lakers squad (48-30) looking to cement their playoff positioning against a struggling Mavericks team (38-41) desperate to snap their recent skid.
With Anthony Davis expected to carry the load for Dallas in the absence of several key players, the matchup features compelling storylines on both sides - from LeBron and Doncic's partnership for LA to Dallas's fight to salvage something from a disappointing season.
The history between these Western Conference rivals adds another layer of intrigue as the Dallas Mavericks host the Los Angeles Lakers in what promises to be a physical, high-stakes showdown.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers matchup, our predictive model gives the Mavs a 56.67% chance of defeating the Lakers.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Mavericks
Moneyline
Win %
56.67%
43.33%
Los Angeles Lakers
Dallas Mavericks: 56.67% win probability
- Home court advantage (Dallas has won 23 of their 39 home games this season)
- Recent form improvement (recent form of LLWLW shows they've won 2 of their last 5 games)
- Defensive efficiency (Dallas has allowed 9116 points through 79 games, fewer than Lakers' 8883 points allowed)
Los Angeles Lakers: 43.33% win probability
- Inconsistent road performance (The Lakers have lost 18 of their 40 road games this season)
- Defensive struggles (Lakers have allowed 8883 points in 79 games, ranking them 10th in the Western Conference)
- Recent form issues (LWWLW shows inconsistency with alternating wins and losses)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Dallas Mavericks | Los Angeles Lakers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers preview
The sputtering Mavericks (38-41) host the Lakers (48-30) tonight at American Airlines Center in what could be a statement game for both Western Conference squads with playoff positioning on the line.
Dallas has dropped their last two games including an embarrassing 135-104 blowout against the Clippers, where Anthony Davis's 27-point effort wasn't nearly enough to keep them competitive.
The Lakers, despite riding a decent stretch with five wins in their last eight, are coming off a tough defeat to OKC and face the challenge of playing on zero days' rest — historically a tough spot for any team.
Recent history between these teams is split down the middle this season, though Dallas holds an impressive 7-3 advantage in their last ten matchups.
Keep an eye on LeBron James, who's been putting up his usual impressive numbers (24.5 PPG, 8.4 APG, 7.9 RPG), while Anthony Davis will surely have extra motivation facing his former team at home.
The injury report looms large for both squads — the Lakers are monitoring Luka Doncic (groin), LeBron (groin), and Austin Reaves (ankle), while Dallas has question marks surrounding Daniel Gafford's knee.
For the Lakers to snatch a road win, they'll need to leverage their superior defensive ratings, particularly their sixth-ranked mid-range defense and tenth-ranked three-point resistance.
The home crowd in Dallas might just provide the spark the Mavs need to bounce back, especially with the Lakers potentially feeling the fatigue of back-to-back games.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers form
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers head to head
Dallas Mavericks
60%
Los Angeles Lakers
40%
Apr 9, 2025
Dallas Mavericks
0 : 0
Los Angeles Lakers
Feb 26, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers
107 : 99
Dallas Mavericks
Jan 8, 2025
Dallas Mavericks
118 : 97
Los Angeles Lakers
Jan 18, 2024
Los Angeles Lakers
127 : 110
Dallas Mavericks
Dec 13, 2023
Dallas Mavericks
127 : 125
Los Angeles Lakers
Nov 23, 2023
Los Angeles Lakers
101 : 104
Dallas Mavericks
