With playoff seeding hanging in the balance, Thursday's clash between Minnesota and Memphis at FedExForum carries massive implications as both teams look to escape the dreaded play-in tournament.
The red-hot Grizzlies enter on a three-game winning streak with Ja Morant firing on all cylinders, while the Timberwolves desperately need to bounce back after their shocking fourth-quarter collapse against Milwaukee where they surrendered a 24-point lead.
FedExForum has been a house of horrors for Minnesota, who've dropped 14 of their last 15 visits, setting up what promises to be a fascinating battle between the home team Grizzlies and away team Timberwolves.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves matchup, our predictive model gives the Grizzlies a 56.67% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Pre-game probabilities
Memphis Grizzlies
Moneyline
Win %
56.67%
43.33%
Minnesota Timberwolves
Memphis Grizzlies: 56.67% win probability
- Higher league position (4th vs 8th in Western Conference)
- Better scoring efficiency (9614 points scored in 79 games, averaging 121.7 points per game)
- Superior recent form (3-2 in last five games compared to Timberwolves' 4-1, but Grizzlies are playing at home which amplifies their advantage)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 43.33% win probability
- Lower overall win percentage (46 wins vs Grizzlies' 47 wins despite playing the same number of games)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (8641 points allowed, but slightly better than Grizzlies' 9227)
- Road game disadvantage (Memphis' home court advantage will be significant as they've performed well at home this season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Memphis Grizzlies | Minnesota Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves preview
The Memphis Grizzlies aim to complete their first season sweep of the Timberwolves since 2020-21 when these Western Conference rivals clash Thursday night at FedExForum in a game with massive playoff implications.
Minnesota stumbles into Memphis after suffering a stunning collapse against Milwaukee where they blew a 24-point fourth-quarter lead, while the Grizzlies enter on a three-game hot streak under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo.
Anthony Edwards, averaging 27.4 points per game, remains Minnesota's offensive engine, but he'll need better efficiency than his 10-of-27 shooting performance in their last outing if the T-Wolves hope to snap Memphis' dominance at FedExForum, where the Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15 against Minnesota.
Memphis's third-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (28.8%) could be neutralized by Minnesota's solid defensive rebounding, setting up an intriguing battle between Zach Edey (coming off a monster 17-point, 19-rebound game) and Rudy Gobert.
The pace battle will be fascinating - Memphis loves to run (leading the NBA with 103.3 possessions per 48 minutes) while Minnesota prefers a methodical approach (23rd with 97.3 possessions).
Ja Morant's 28-point, 8-assist performance against Charlotte showcased why he's still the engine that drives the Grizzlies' high-octane offense.
Both teams desperately need this win to improve their playoff positioning - Memphis controls its destiny to avoid the play-in tournament while Minnesota looks to climb from their current eighth seed.
With Memphis holding narrow victories in both previous matchups this season (127-125 and 108-106), expect another nail-biter in what might be a playoff preview.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves form
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves head to head
Memphis Grizzlies
50%
Minnesota Timberwolves
50%
Jan 20, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
108 : 106
Minnesota Timberwolves
Jan 12, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
125 : 127
Memphis Grizzlies
Feb 29, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
110 : 101
Memphis Grizzlies
Jan 19, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
118 : 103
Memphis Grizzlies
Dec 9, 2023
Memphis Grizzlies
103 : 127
Minnesota Timberwolves
Nov 26, 2023
Memphis Grizzlies
97 : 119
Minnesota Timberwolves
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