The red-hot Indiana Pacers, riding a five-game winning streak and still hunting for better playoff positioning, welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in a matchup that pits motivation against rest.
While the Cavs have already locked up the East's top seed and plan to sit their three top scorers—Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley—the Pacers boast a clean injury report and clear incentive as they chase the Knicks for the third seed.
With Indiana's high-octane offense (117.3 PPG) facing Cleveland's skeleton crew, Thursday's clash has all the makings of a statement game as the home team Pacers square off against the away team Cavaliers.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 80% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
Cleveland Cavaliers
Moneyline
Win %
80%
20%
Indiana Pacers
Cleveland Cavaliers: 80% win probability
- League-leading record (63-16 overall record)
- Dominant point differential (+786 points on the season)
- Exceptional defensive performance (8875 points allowed, 2nd best in the league)
Indiana Pacers: 20% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (9082 points allowed, middle of the pack)
- Significant record gap compared to Cleveland (48-31 vs 63-16)
- Historically struggles against top conference teams (Cleveland is #1 in East)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Indiana Pacers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
The top-seeded Cavaliers roll into Gainbridge Fieldhouse with their eyes firmly set on the playoffs, but they'll be notably shorthanded as they've chosen to rest their big three—Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley—with the Eastern Conference's top spot already locked up.
This strategic decision creates an uphill battle for Cleveland, who despite leading the league in scoring (122.3 PPG) and three-point percentage (38.4%), will struggle to maintain their offensive firepower against a motivated Pacers squad.
Indiana, riding the momentum of five straight wins, has everything to play for as they're still battling for playoff positioning and chasing the Knicks for that coveted third seed in the East.
The Pacers' potent offense, ranked seventh in the league (117.3 PPG), should have a field day against Cleveland's depleted roster, with Tyrese Haliburton's playmaking and Pascal Siakam's scoring likely to be the difference-makers.
Siakam has been particularly impressive lately, putting up 24 points and 10 rebounds in their last outing against Washington while shooting an efficient 57.9% from the field.
Head-to-head, these teams have split their previous two meetings this season, but Thursday's clash hardly resembles those earlier matchups given Cleveland's lineup situation.
The contrast couldn't be starker: Indiana enters with a clean injury report and playoff positioning on the line, while Cleveland prioritizes rest and recovery before their championship push.
With the Cavaliers' bench players getting extended run and the Pacers clicking on all cylinders, expect Indiana to control this game from start to finish in what should feel like a playoff atmosphere in Indianapolis.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head
Indiana Pacers
40%
Cleveland Cavaliers
60%
Apr 10, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 15, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 127
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 12, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
93 : 108
Indiana Pacers
Oct 10, 2024
Cleveland Cavaliers
117 : 129
Indiana Pacers
Jul 20, 2024
Cleveland Cavaliers
100 : 93
Indiana Pacers
Apr 12, 2024
Cleveland Cavaliers
129 : 120
Indiana Pacers
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