The Miami Heat roll into the Big Easy desperate to halt their recent slide after dropping three of their last four games, including a disappointing 119-111 loss to Chicago where Tyler Herro's 30-point performance wasn't enough to secure victory.
They'll face a New Orleans Pelicans squad that can't catch a break on the injury front, with none of their projected starting five available as they trudge through the second night of a back-to-back after getting pummeled by Milwaukee.
With Miami fighting for playoff positioning and the Pelicans simply trying to limp to the season's finish line, Friday's clash at Smoothie King Center presents a stark contrast between a Heat team with something to play for and a home team that's been reduced to a shell of itself against a hungry away team.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?
For today's New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 77.5% chance of defeating the Pelicans.
Pre-game probabilities
New Orleans Pelicans
Moneyline
Win %
22.5%
77.5%
Miami Heat
New Orleans Pelicans: 22.5% win probability
- Poor recent form (five consecutive losses - LLLLL)
- Significant defensive struggles (9511 points against, among worst in the league)
- Low win rate with only 21 victories in 80 games played
Miami Heat: 77.5% win probability
- Better overall win percentage (36 wins vs 21 wins)
- Superior defensive performance (8800 points against vs 9511)
- Higher position in standings (10th vs 14th in respective conferences)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Best NBA sportsbook promos
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat preview
The Heat head to the Big Easy tonight with their playoff positioning on the line, desperately looking to bounce back after dropping three of their last four games, including a frustrating 119-111 defeat to Chicago on Wednesday.
Miami's Tyler Herro has been on fire lately, dropping 30 points against the Bulls, and he'll need to maintain that hot hand if the Heat hope to improve their standing in the Eastern Conference's play-in tournament picture.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are basically running on fumes - they're without their entire projected starting five, including Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, and just suffered a 136-111 beatdown in Milwaukee last night.
New Orleans has lost 11 of their last 14 games and looks like a team that simply can't wait for this nightmare season to end.
Despite their recent struggles, Miami still has something tangible to play for - they're battling for home-court advantage in the 9/10 play-in game, currently sitting one game behind Chicago for the ninth spot.
The Heat took the first meeting between these teams back on New Year's Day with a 119-108 home victory, and this matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions regarding tempo - Miami ranks 28th in pace while the injury-ravaged Pelicans sit 15th.
With the Pelicans playing their third game in four nights and Miami having had a couple days off to regroup, expect the Heat to take control early against a New Orleans squad that simply doesn't have the personnel to keep pace.
This has all the makings of a much-needed Miami win as they try to build momentum heading into the play-in tournament, while the Pelicans just hope to escape without adding more names to their already crowded injury list.
Betting on the NBA?
Sporting Post is your trusted source for NBA betting. We deliver expert NBA predictions, top NBA picks, and the latest NBA odds. Our detailed game analysis and real-time insights help you bet with confidence. Plus, we’ve reviewed and tested the best NBA betting sites to ensure you’re using safe and trusted online sportsbooks, the best betting apps, and betting sites.