With playoff implications hanging in the balance, Saturday's clash between the high-flying Toronto Maple Leafs and the surging Montreal Canadiens promises offensive fireworks at Scotiabank Arena.
Toronto's lethal attack, spearheaded by Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner (who've combined for a staggering 96 goals), will test Montreal's shaky defense that's allowing over three goals per game — though Canadiens' forward Nick Suzuki might have something to say about that.
Recent form suggests an edge for the Maple Leafs who've won seven of their last ten, but hockey's most storied rivalry between Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens rarely follows the script.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 75% chance of defeating the Habs.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
75%
25%
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs: 75% win probability
- Superior position in standings (2nd in Eastern Conference vs 8th for Montreal)
- More wins this season (48 wins compared to Montreal's 39 wins)
- Better goal differential (+28 compared to Montreal's -20)
Montreal Canadiens: 25% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (258 goals against, among the highest in playoff contention teams)
- Lower point total (87 points vs Toronto's 100 points after similar games played)
- Challenging position as road underdogs against a top Eastern Conference team
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Montreal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens preview
The age-old rivalry between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs reignites Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena with playoff implications hanging in the balance.
Toronto sits atop the Atlantic Division with a stellar 48-26-4 record, having won seven of their last ten games and showing no signs of slowing down.
Montreal (39-31-9) finds themselves on the playoff bubble, relying heavily on their dynamic trio of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky who've combined for an impressive 82 goals this season.
The goaltending matchup could steal the spotlight, with Toronto's Anthony Stolarz (.922 save percentage) likely facing off against Montreal's Jakub Dobes, who's been a bright spot for the Habs' otherwise struggling defense.
Toronto's balanced attack features the deadly combination of Matthews, Marner and Nylander who've been lighting up scoresheets all season - they've poured in 10 goals in just their last three games.
Look for the battle between Montreal's high-flying offense (3.00 goals per game) and Toronto's stingy defense (2.88 goals against) to determine which Canadian powerhouse takes home the points.
Toronto's Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe have fortified a blue line that's surrendered just 11 goals in their last six contests.
If recent form holds true, expect a high-scoring affair with Toronto having the edge on home ice, though Montreal's desperate playoff push makes them dangerous underdogs.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
83%
Montreal Canadiens
17%
Jan 19, 2025
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 7
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 1
Montreal Canadiens
Oct 9, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
1 : 0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep 28, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
1 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep 26, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 1
Montreal Canadiens
Apr 6, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
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